The Hindu Business Line : Wet spell over east as cyclonic whirl persists

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 30 The withdrawing monsoon failed to make much headway from Monday’s position what with an upper air cyclonic circulation hovering above Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand offering some resistance.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Tuesday said that the circulation might set off scattered to fairly widespread rains over north Bihar, northeast Uttar Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Isolated heavy falls have been forecast over north Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next 24 hours. These rains should help the Met subdivision of Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura clear up the seasonal deficit. West Madhya Pradesh was the only other Met subdivision left with a deficit when figures were updated last.

A group of numerical weather prediction models, including that of the UK Met Office and the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Services, expects the rain-driving weather feature over Bihar to re-curve and track down to east-southeast towards Chhattisgarh/Orissa.

MODEL PREDICTIONS

This would go to corroborate model predictions of sporadic rains reaching into adjoining central India during the first week of October, and along the southeast coast before turning southwest across the northern peninsula. However, the extreme south comprising Kerala and southern Tamil Nadu is forecast to remain dry.

A lifeline is being extended from the Northwest Pacific/South China Sea where storm activity continues to rage, contrary to forecasts post the passing of super typhoon Jangmi.

This storm measured up to Category-4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale for storm intensity, coming as it did close on the heels of class-matching predecessor typhoon Hagupit.

Two tropical storms, Mekkhala and Higos, have spun up since in quick succession over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea respectively over the past two days. The latter is set to cross into Vietnam and, according to forecasters, would have some say on evolving weather in the adjoining Bay of Bengal.

LIKELY WHIRLS

Not surprisingly, some models see the possibility of cyclonic circulations developing just off the Andhra Pradesh coast around October 6 and over the Head Bay a little earlier. They may not kick up violent weather, but are capable of creating decidedly wet conditions within their areas of jurisdiction.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a westerly trough wading in from the northwest border and dipping to almost central India over the next few says to amplify local weather. The Global Forecast System sees the rain showers in the region extending up to October 13.

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies goes one step further in observing that this period may extend to October 16.

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