The Hindu Business Line : Westerly system to bring down mercury

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 6 The rain activity over east and northeast India is forecast to continue for three more days even an incoming western disturbance dropped anchor over Jammu and Kashmir on Monday.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggested scattered rainfall activity over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States.

The feeble western disturbance is likely to cause isolated to scattered rainfall activity over Western Himalayan region during the next two days. This will bring down the maximum temperatures over parts of northwest India from their highs.

SUCCESSOR SYSTEM

A follow-up western disturbance as an upper air system lay over north Pakistan on Monday. But early indications are that the seasonal anti-cyclone presiding over dry weather will spread its influence over more parts of the northwest after the passage of the prevailing westerly system.

Rain or thundershowers are likely at few places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next three days. On Monday, cyclonic circulations were traced to over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh, west Uttar Pradesh and north Konkan.

As a result, rain or thundershowers have been forecast at a few places over south and interior Karnataka during the next 24 hours. Isolated thundershower activity has been predicted over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra as well as over adjoining Central India.

RAIN SHOWERS

Meanwhile, international numerical weather prediction models showed a growing footprint of poorly organised showers over the southern peninsula during the week ending October 13.

The week that follows would possibly witness the arrival of better organised rain activity impacting the peninsula from the deep south, an extension of the intense thunderstorm activity forecast to break out over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services sees the thunderstorms gradually progressing to the east and northeast before entering the Bay of Bengal.

The intense weather activity would be overseen by an enhanced convective phase of the west-to-east moving Madden-Julian Oscillation Wave exiting West Africa during this period, model forecasts said.

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