The Hindu Business Line : Rains may intensify over peninsula from Sunday

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 10 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity over the extreme south peninsula over a five-day period from Sunday.

Climatologically speaking, this is the timeframe for the northeast monsoon to set in along the southwest and southeast coast.

There are no signature features associated with the “onset” except a gradual increase in rainfall activity over the south peninsular coasts. Unlike the monsoon southwesterlies, the easterlies lack in depth. One event that could strengthen the easterly flows is the shifting of the resident anti-cyclone to lower latitudes.

Monsoon withdrawal

This will happen in tandem with the withdrawal of southwest monsoon from the remaining parts of northwest India and some parts of east and central India during the next 2-3 days. This will in turn lead to a weakening of rain activity in the northeast. Monsoon easterlies will then get drawn in to the strong wind pattern typically observed to the south of the anti-cyclone, gaining in speed and depth.

On Friday, the IMD forecast that the rain-causing trough from sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim to the north Bay of Bengal had become less marked. The cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and adjoining Bihar too had weakened.

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies has predicted that the rains would be concentrated over southeast Tamil Nadu during the week ending October 17. The rain cover will slowly expand to the rest of the peninsula.

Weak flows

Northeasterlies to easterlies are already noticeable over the southwest Bay converging over Sri Lanka, but less so over south Tamil Nadu. A trough of low was located over the southeast Bay on Friday, the IMD said.

Another trough extended from south Tamil Nadu to north Konkan through south interior Karnataka and coastal Karnataka. But the embedded cyclonic circulation at the Tamil Nadu end had weakened.

Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast for coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days and this will increase thereafter. The rest of the peninsula would witness isolated thundershowers.

The Chennai Met Centre said that during the 24 hours ending Friday morning, rainfall occurred at a few places over Kerala and Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page