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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 14 The northeast monsoon current has established itself over the South China Sea and parts of the adjoining Indo-China landmass packing winds gusting to 20 to 35 knots (37 to 64 km/hr) on Tuesday according to international numerical weather model updates.

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), it will take three more days for the pattern to get replicated firmly over the Bay of Bengal.

The feeble ‘low’ off the peninsular tip has generated a core of largely southeasterly flows around it, which are draining their contents over the southern peninsular region. It will take a strong system in the Bay for rallying the northeasterlies around and boost the seasonal flows.

In the absence of such a system, the prevailing ‘low’ is seen as taking upon itself the task as it moves a shade north-northeast first, intensifies over the Lakshadweep area and tracks a move to the west into the open Arabian Sea, away from the Indian landmass.

Numerical weather prediction models indicate that the intensifying system (to be named Abe in case of a cyclone) would persuade the easterly-to-northeasterlies to prevail over the Bay and later along the southeast coast of India. This is expected to happen around October 17 (Friday), which more or less supports the IMD forecast.

Importantly, these flows are shown to trigger an easterly wave in their wake, which would drop anchor over the Andaman Sea the same day. This is forecast to get a move to the north-northwest and track towards the southeast India coast.

It may intensify a bit before readying for a landfall over the coast (Chennai according to the initial conditions recorded on Tuesday) around October 20. A break-away circulation was shown to clamber to the north along the south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast.

Meanwhile, the Arabian Sea counterpart, which has to travel a comparatively larger distance, is shown to cross land (the Yemen coast, as per initial indications) around this time.

The IMD said on Tuesday the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from the north-eastern States, the North Bay, parts of central Bay, entire Orissa and Chhattisgarh, parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telengana and more parts of Maharashtra and Arabian Sea.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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