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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 15 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced the onset of northeast monsoon over the peninsula after predecessor southwest monsoon exited the landmass and the surrounding oceans overnight on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm No. 22 in the South China Sea, since weakened as a tropical depression after landfall over Vietnam, and the band of northeasterlies packing it seems to have steamrolled token resistance from a flagging southwesterlies.

The depression is moving in a south-southwest direction over land and could soon dip into the adjoining east Bay of Bengal. It will be watched for signs of regeneration in the light of short-term forecast of a system careening towards the southeast Indian coast.

Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services has postponed its outlook for possible cyclogenesis (birth of a cyclone) in the Bay from this week to the next (Oct 21-27) in the latest update made available on Wednesday.

This is despite the prospect of a system spinning off from the depression that would cross into the territorial waters over the next few days. The presence of a weather system in the Arabian Ocean coupled with the expected arrival of a western disturbance seems to be working against the evolution of a strong Bay circulation just yet.

As for the ongoing week (Oct 14-20), the CPC saw an increased chance for above normal precipitation for the Indian Ocean (including extreme south peninsular India) and west Indonesia. The enhanced phase of a periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave passing through the region is expected to result in wet conditions.

The next week that follows would be watched for signs of birth of a storm in the Bay, prospects for which get boosted by the passage of the MJO as well as by model guidance, the CPC said.

Meanwhile, the IMD said a feeble low pressure area off the peninsular tip lay over southeast Arabian Sea on Wednesday and is likely to intensify. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast over the south peninsula and Lakshadweep during next three days.

Rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep. Isolated heavy rainfall has been warned of in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

The scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is expected to continue until October 20, according to short-to-medium-term forecasts.

The Chennai Met Centre said rainfall occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and at many places over Kerala. Isolated rainfall was reported from coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka.

A western disturbance was seen lying in wait over central Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir featuring a prospective weather-maker trough.

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