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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 17 The launch of Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) Chandrayaan-1 lunar spacecraft scheduled for October 22 may have to deal with a north-east monsoon peaking just around the same time.

The east-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence would have been established over south peninsular India by that time which could provide for some unsettled weather along the southeast coast, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Senior Advisor, Department of Science and Technology.

This would be pronounced over the Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh, ‘Ground Zero’ for purposes of the launch programme. Gusting winds and convective clouds are other likely risks.

Easterlies to northeasterlies are seen picking in speed in tandem with the peaking monsoon. Formation of convective clouds, however, cannot be predicted with any conceivable measure of accuracy until two hours before it actually takes place.

In this context, the Doppler radars at Sriharikota and Chennai would become in handy for the crack team of meteorologists associated with the Chandrayaan project, Dr Gupta said.

Vertical wind shear triggered by the vertical motion in tall convective clouds, lightning and storms are weather hazards such launch programmes have to deal with during this time of the year. But the skies can clear up in between, throwing up possible ‘launch windows’ depending on how long the recess sustains.

These possibilities are largely factored in to the launch schedule, and the actual count-down lends itself to being adjusted in accordance with emerging weather conditions. In any case, no big storms are forecast to develop in the Bay around October 22 save for some activity centred some distance to the east.

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