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Monsoon vigour over Bay; Arabian Sea hosts cyclone


Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 21 Southwest Arabian Sea is now hosting a ‘numbered’ cyclone 03B (away from India’s coast, not strong enough to be ‘named’) even as the north east monsoon gathered further steam over the southern peninsula.

Chennai and adjoining south coastal Andhra Pradesh, where a final countdown is on for India’s lunar mission, has been witnessing heavy spells of rain over the past two days. Forecasts suggested a further blow-up in the region on Wednesday as well, the day of the launch.

The Bay of Bengal seems to be humming in unison with the equatorial Pacific and the South China Sea with forecasts showing a retinue of easterly disturbances crossing in one after the other.

The Bay activity, steered on Tuesday by a cyclonic circulation over the peninsular tip, will have cascading impact over the Arabian Sea across the southern peninsula later into the week and even beyond with a cyclonic circulation forecast to spin up off the Kerala-Karnataka coast.

CYCLONE LANDFALL

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said that Tropical Cyclone 03B would skirt the northernmost tip of Somalia but would get itself wedged into the Gulf of Eden, weakening a bit in the process. It would make a landfall over the Yemen coast later.

Back home, the northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh while being active over Rayalaseema and Kerala during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.

The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that rainfall occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep; at many places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema; and at a few places over south interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Telangana, coastal and north interior Karnataka.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Lakshadweep and at a few places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Karnataka. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Telangana and north interior Karnataka.

HEAVY SPELL WARNED

A separate warning valid during the period said that isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh. Isolated heavy rain is also likely to occur over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema and Kerala during the same period.

Meanwhile, a western disturbance is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir and the Western Himalayan region during the next two days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said. Scattered rain or snow is likely over Jammu and Kashmir and isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next 24 hours.

Short to medium outlook from the IMD cited meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models to suggest that the ongoing rainfall activity over south peninsula and Lakshadweep is likely to continue until the weekend.

But the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has assessed that the unstable weather over the peninsular seas would prevail right up till the month end to sustain the wet spell across the adjoining landmass.

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