The Hindu Business Line : Advantage, Obama!

Media polls indicate that Obama is several percentage points ahead of McCain in terms of popular support. However, the turnout of black and young voters on election day may be critical to turn the popular sentiment into actual votes.

Alok Ray

The US Presidential race has now entered its last lap. Who is going to be the next US President and what are the possible implications of the choice?

The third and final debate between Barack Obama and John McCain — the two candidates for the US President — is over. Their respective positions on different issues have been spelt out clearly. Media polls indicate that Obama is several p ercentage points ahead of McCain in terms of popular support at this point in time. Obama has the added advantage of having raised much more campaign funds (mainly through small contributions from millions of people) to run advertisements and has more number of young volunteers on the ground to campaign for him over the last two weeks before the elections on November 4.

Different strategies

The US economy is going through a crisis unprecedented since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This is helping Obama whose main strategy has been to argue that voting for McCain is basically voting for continuation of George Bush’s failed economic policies for another five years. McCain, on his part, is desperately trying to dissociate himself from Bush’s economic policy. In perhaps the best performance in the last debate, McCain said; “Mr Obama, I am not George Bush. If you want to fight George Bush, you should have fought the presidential election four years back.”

McCain’s strategy primarily hinges on questioning Obama’s past — in particular his alleged association with an anti-war white radical (now a college professor) and with a black radical priest (whose views Obama has publicly repudiated). He wants to project Obama as an unreliable radical who is bent on redistributing wealth from the rich to the poor, rather than creating wealth which is the hallmark of capitalism. Obama, in the face of such personal attacks, has maintained a dignified calm which has made him look more ‘presidential’ and has won more popular support. It is a sad refection on the US that Obama has to try all the time to show that he is a devout church-going Christian, not a Muslim — as if only Christians can be US Presidents. An old lady asked McCain: “Is Obama an Arab?” McCain’s answer was even more surprising which did not help to remove the racist bias in the question. He said; “No, ma’am. Obama is not Arab. He is a fine gentleman.” As if, an Arab cannot be a nice gentleman. He should have said; “Obama is an American, not an Arab.”

Foreign policy initiatives

The Iraq war has gone to the backburner as an election issue. However, the difference in foreign policy positions of the two candidates is clear. Obama wants to end the Iraq War as soon as possible even if the warring Iraqi factions are not ready to form a unified government. He would like to deploy the released forces in Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas where the more decisive battle between the Al-Qaeda and the US forces (and its allies) is being fought.

Allied forces are suffering from an acute shortage of men and materials there. Obama has gone on record to suggest that he would not hesitate to strike within Pakistan if there are actionable terrorist targets. McCain is against any deadline for withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. He believes that some sort of face-saving American victory in Iraq is still possible. Obama is in favour of talking to Iran, without any preconditions, to slow down, if not eliminate, the Iranian efforts to build nuclear weapons and to soften the Iranian attitudes towards US and Israel. McCain is against such talks.

‘Tax’ing issues

The number one issue before the voters is the state of the economy and the economic distress of the people. The US unemployment rate has exceeded 6.1 per cent and is feared to cross 7.5 per cent next year. Obama is in favour of reducing taxes for those with income below $250,000 and raising taxes for the ‘rich’ with income above this limit. He would provide a temporary respite to troubled homeowners with a moratorium on housing foreclosures for a few months. He also favours subsidy for college tuitions which have skyrocketed in the US. He is pushing for an affordable universal health insurance plan which parents must buy at least for their children, else they would be fined. Obama wants to spend more on improving the schools. McCain is not willing to raise taxes for anyone, especially when the economy is going through hard times. That means the earlier tax cuts by the Bush administration for everyone will remain. Obama has proposed to give temporary tax breaks to business corporations which create jobs in the US, rather than abroad. Obama is also against free trade agreements which do not incorporate clauses on labour and environment standards. He argues that FTAs without such standards will give a cost advantage to foreign producers and would take away jobs from the US. By and large, McCain (and Republicans, in general) is more pro-business and more in favour of free trade and free capital movements.

Both candidates have supported the massive bailout schemes for the troubled banks, insurance and financial companies announced by the current US government. They believe that the primary culprit for the financial crisis is the greed and excessively risky behaviour of the Wall Street bankers. Yet, given that the crisis is now affecting everyone, there is no other option than bailing out the banks so that they can resume lending to investors and buyers of home and cars. But none of the candidates is putting the blame on the politicians who have allowed reckless lending operations to be conducted without proper regulations for such a long time.

Powell’s choice

The latest factor going in favour of Obama is that Colin Powell — a Republican, a respected black Army General, a former Secretary of State under President Bush who was one of the architects of the Iraq war — has now openly endorsed Obama over McCain. His logic for support is that McCain campaign has turned to negative character vilification and is glossing over the burning issues of financial crisis and how to end the Iraq war. Powell has also expressed his apprehension about the inexperience of McCain’s running mate Sarah Palin (the young lady governor of the small state of Alaska) who will step in as President should something happen to McCain who is 72 and has undergone cancer surgery. By contrast, Senator Biden — Obama’s running mate — is a long-time senator with a great deal of foreign policy experience.

So, all considered, the chances of Obama winning the Presidency of the US are brighter. However, the turnout of black and young voters on the election day may be critical to turn the popular sentiment into actual votes.

(The author, a former Professor of IIM Calcutta, is currently a Visiting Professor of Economics at Portland State University, US. blfeedback@thehindu.co.in)