The Hindu Business Line : Peninsular rains may relent soon

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 23 Wednesday’s feeble ‘low’ over the southeast Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast has strengthened overnight into a conventional ‘low’ even as a counterpart system is expected to pop over the Bay of Bengal by Friday.

Active northeast monsoon conditions prevailed over the southern peninsula on Thursday and would stay as such for the next two days too. But India Meteorological Department (IMD) and international models indicated that the rains may weaken towards the month-end.

The Arabian Sea ‘low’ is predicted to veer away a northwesterly course out into the open seas while the Bay system would get a move to the north first before pushing westwards. The rain cover over the southwest coast would recede gradually as the former probes the outer seas.

The southeast coast bordering Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh would get buffeted by renewed spells of heavy to very heavy rains as the fresh ‘low’ brews over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal.

Forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and north interior Karnataka.

DRY MJO PHASE

Meanwhile, forecasts based on the movement of the periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave of alternating enhanced and suppressed phases of rainfall suggest that the ongoing wet session over the southern peninsula would weaken towards the month-end. This is based on the assessment that the current phase of the MJO wave, travelling periodically from West Africa into Indian Ocean and further east into the equatorial Pacific and beyond, would be followed up by the suppressed phase from November 1.

This weakened rain phase would last until November 22, according to the ensemble forecast system of the US National Weather Services. The successor MJO phase of enhanced rains is expected to get anchored over equatorial Indian Ocean and the southern Indian peninsula from December 2.

A long-term outlook by the UK Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggested ‘above normal’ rain for southern peninsula through December, January and even early into February.

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