The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ pops up over Bay, to intensify

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 24 The Bay of Bengal has spun off a ‘low’ on Friday in line with forecasts amid signals that the system may intensify into a depression within the next two days.

The arrival of a western disturbance, which is expected to dip into the Bay, may likely cap the prospects of its further intensification, according to international model forecasts.

Associated westerlies are shown to scoop up the system and spirit it away in a north-northeast direction. Northeast Orissa-West Bengal coast suggests itself as a likely choice for landfall.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its outlook on Friday that under these circumstances, scattered to fairly widespread rains are likely along the east coast during the next four days.

The US Navy’s Joint typhoon Warning Centre has upgraded as fair the potential for this system to develop as a tropical cyclone. The associated area of convection was located to about 370 km northwest of Kochi.

Persistent deep convection had been noted along an elongated low-level circulation centre, which lay in an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear and with favourable ventilation on the top. Maximum sustained surface winds were around 37 to 46 km/hr on Friday. These were good attributes for the system to develop further as a storm. Forecast for the next two days from the Met centre, Chennai, said rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Kerala; many places over Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kanyakumari and Tirunelveli districts of south Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep; and at a few places over remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Rayalaseema.

A warning valid for the same period said isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over Kerala. The intensity of the rains in the south peninsula is tipped to reduce from October 27 but scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast over the Northeastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim.

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