The Hindu Business Line : How far will FIIs go?

Mumbai, Oct. 24 As the intensity of selling by foreign institutional investors left the market belly up on Friday, (when FII net sales at Rs 1400 crore, were the highest for any single day), market watchers were wondering just how much more FIIs are going to sell in the days ahead.

On that will hinge the depth the market can fall to before it can bottom out.

Total net investments by FIIs in Indian equities to date amount to $ 54.2 billion, the latest SEBI data show. The market value of FII investments could be more, or less, depending on when the investments were made, said marketmen.

Taking October as the reference month, the largest increase in FII investments was between 2004 and 2005 when net investments by FIIs rose by $ 36 billion. “But the Sensex in October 2005 was at the 8000-levels, which we are approaching now. The bull run started in 2004 with FII investments, and there is a fear that the bear run led by these FIIs, could take the Sensex back to the October 2004 level of 5700,” said a senior official with a stock broking firm.

If the Indian stocks are being both taken up and pulled down by FIIs, this indicates there is little depth in our markets, said Mr Arun Kejriwal who heads Kejriwal Research and Information Services. “Our markets are not mature. We have allowed FIIs to dictate both the rise and fall of our markets.”

FIIs have already sold equities for over $ 12 billion in 2008, dragging the Sensex down from its life time high 20,500-levels in January to the 8700-levels today.

How much more will FIIs sell, and how much will Indian stocks sink?

The desperation with which they are selling gives no indication for optimism, said marketmen. There is tremendous pressure on them from their constituents overseas, said an official with a brokerage.

Last year, FIIs invested $ 15 billion in the markets, but have sold for $ 12 billion already this year. Their desperation is evident from the fact that they have invested last year when the rupee was at 43/44 to the dollar, but are now pulling out at 50, that would mean a further loss to them, in addition to the decline in stock prices, he said. But they are still hell bent on selling, he added.