The Hindu Business Line : Bay bracing to witness cyclonic storm

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 26 The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal (a numbered tropical cyclone 04B) is being credited with the attributes to blow up as a named cyclonic storm and roar into the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast by Monday afternoon.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that the system could trigger rainfall at most places over coastal West Bengal with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the next two days.

Isolated heavy falls have also been predicted over north coastal Orissa and the Northeastern States over the next two days.

Squally winds speed reaching 55 to 65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/hr are likely along and off the West Bengal and Orissa coast.

The sea condition would be very `rough’ to `high’ along and off these coasts. Fishermen have been warned against venturing into the sea.

‘FAIR’ CHANCE

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) too has upgraded as fair the potential for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the Bay.

An elongated low level circulation centre (LLCC), the nucleus around which the storm grows, has continued to quickly organise with converging bands of convection.

The system has good ventilation towards the top, helping it breathe free and grow in strength.

The low vertical wind shear is another favourable factor.

But this calibrated growth has adversely impacted the potential for a counterpart system to spin up next door to the west over the southeast Arabian Sea.

The outflow from the top of the Bay system has been shearing away associated cloud tops over the Arabian Sea, causing it to stagnate.

In the process, it brought some very to exceptionally heavy rain in Kerala, especially over the northern districts.

SHIFTING POSITION

The LLCC in this case has continued to shift and is difficult to locate, the JTWC said.

The upper level flow remained favourable with ventilation but the flows emanating from the stronger Bay system was creating moderate to high vertical wind shear, which kills building storms.

An international storm tracking and forecast model ventured to suggest that the Arabian Sea might just get a new lease of life after the Bay storm blows over and eventually travel to the northwest, away from Indian coast. But it may find the westerlies too strong to go the full distance.

RAINS FORECAST

Apart from east and northeast India, the IMD outlook for rain or thundershowers has been extended to cover Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka during the next 24 hours.

A separate warning valid for the next 24 hours said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over coastal areas of West Bengal, the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next two days and over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and north coastal Orissa.

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