The Hindu Business Line : Isolated showers seen over Kerala, TN

The entire peninsula went largely without any significant rain activity for another day on Friday, even as a lone cyclonic circulation around Lakshadweep promised to shower its contents over the west coast over the next 24 hours.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update on Friday that the circulation has been persisting from Thursday. International model runs see the system drifting towards the north Kerala-coastal Karnataka coast before reverting back to the sea and dying out there by Saturday.

Two other circulations featured were over north Tamil Nadu coast and the Myanmar coast. While the first one is tipped to travel north to south along the Tamil Nadu coast, the latter is seen as sliding into east-central Bay of Bengal before re-curving north-northeast, but at quite some distance from the Indian coast.

IMD has forecast isolated rain or thundershowers over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep over the next day or two. But largely subdued rainfall activity is likely to prevail over the south peninsula.

FRESH BAY WHIRL

Meanwhile, a watch is being kept for a fresh upper air cyclonic circulation likely to emerge into east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea by Saturday. The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies saw a weak regime of rains extending from this system into the north Tamil Nadu coast. But the week beginning November 9 would see a blow-up of rains spreading over northeast and east-central Bay of Bengal, presumably triggered by heightened follow-up easterly wave activity. There is no indication just yet of any organised rain spreading west towards the Indian coast.

A western disturbance traced to over north Pakistan and adjoining northwest Jammu and Kashmir has moved away to the east on Friday. This brought cold, sinking air (against warm, rising air aiding convection and rains in the front) into the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains in northwest India bringing down mercury.

EXCESS IN KERALA, TN

Kerala and Tamil Nadu have witnessed excess northeast monsoon rainfall according to statistics available until Wednesday (October 29).

Out of the 15 `Met districts' in the Kerala and the Lakshadweep Met sub-divisions, 14 have received either excess or normal rainfall. The strategically important Idukki district, that produced the bulk of the State's requirements of hydropower, was however in deficit (-24 per cent) with implications for the ongoing load-shedding schedule.

However, the northeast monsoon has been largely indifferent over Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Of the three Met sub-divisions in each State, only one managed to return normal rainfall. Between the two, Andhra Pradesh returned the worst rainfall profile. The poor show is being attributed to the rather southerly-biased track of westward moving rain-bearing systems from the Bay of Bengal.