|
|
Home Page
-
Climate & Weather
Agri-Biz & Commodities
-
Climate & Weather
Mixed outlook for winter weather
Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram, Nov 4
International weather models have come out with varying outlooks with respect to the unfolding wintry weather over India.
A leading Asian weather prediction model sees `an anomalously warm transit from fall to winter' over most of South Asia, including India where a prevailing dry phase continues to hold strong.
The Busan, South Korea-based APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Forum) Climate Centre (APCC) said that the warm climes are expected to continue through January 2009.
The severe rainfall deficit conditions in the West Asia may also continue, along with less than normal rainfall signals predicted for Pakistan. Northwestern parts of Europe too may see a warmer than normal transition into winter.
ABERRANT WEATHER
Rainfall projections for the period seem to suggest that south peninsular India could see slightly above rainfall while it would be normal over Rajasthan. The ongoing dry phase down south could be just an aberration, according to the APCC model.
But the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting has come out with a contrasting outlook that predicts colder than normal conditions for south Gujarat, northwest Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi during November through December.
East India and Pakistan across the northwest border are two regions expected to witness warm conditions during the period. South Gujarat, northern fringes of the west coast and parts of central India are forecast to receive normal to above normal rainfall while Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts would remain largely dry.
COOL CLIMES
The Met Office, UK, saw below normal temperatures prevailing over almost two-thirds of the country west to east, but less so over central India and warm towards east and the northeast during November to December.
This model too saw above normal rainfall for the southern peninsula during this period while this was less pronounced for north and adjoining northwest Rajasthan.
Meanwhile, a dry phase resulting from a strongly suppressed rainfall regime associated with a periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave continued to be the dominant theme in peninsular weather on Tuesday.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services said in its latest update that the below-average rainfall over west-central equatorial Indian Ocean extending into southern India would hold until November 17.
MJO-NEUTRAL PHASE
Models tracking the MJO movement persist with their outlook that conditions would turn (MJO) `neutral' around mid-November paving the way for the cyclical `wet' phase to follow. This phase is predicted to hold into the first week of December.
On Tuesday, India Meteorological Department traced a trough to the lower level easterlies extending from southwest Bay of Bengal to the west-central. International models tracked a cyclonic whirl loitering in the Andaman Sea region, which is shown to get a move to the central Bay and die out there by Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the sea surface temperatures in the southwest Bay - along Sri Lanka and south Tamil Nadu coasts - have warmed up after having been cooled from the churn of erstwhile Tropical Cyclone Rashmi. Warmer seas help approaching weather systems to mature, resulting in convection and precipitation.
More Stories on :
Climate & Weather |
Climate & Weather
Article
E-Mail
::
Comment
::
Syndication
::
Printer Friendly Page
|
|
