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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 9 All leading models are now indicating a revival of northeast monsoon around a building low-pressure area in the south-central Bay of Bengal mid-week.

This is timed to coincide with the fading out of a suppressed rain regime enforced by the cyclical dry phase of a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave.

The prevailing MJO-neutral phase would slowly give way to the next wet phase, which the brewing ‘low’ would preside over. The ‘low’ is forecast to intensify into a depression in due course.

On Sunday, a preparatory trough of low pressure lay stretched over the Bay, extending from the extreme southeast, running broader into the centre before reaching out to the Tamil Nadu coast with a limb poking into north Sri Lanka.

The wind direction has reverted to being east-to-northeast, which completes the build-up. Stray advance moisture floating around has triggered thundershowers over extreme south peninsula over the past two days. These are set to continue over the next three days as well.

Cold wave conditions in parts of the south peninsula would have to yield place to the warmer climes heralded by the moisture-laden monsoon currents. The cold air from northwest India was being steered by a seasonal anti-cyclone and getting directed into the peninsula.

India Meteorological Department has forecast rain or thundershowers at a few places over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which would intensify later. Isolated thundershowers are also likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

On Sunday, an upper air cyclonic circulation over extreme southeast Bay was anchoring the northeasterlies across the Bay into Sri Lanka and the extreme southern Indian peninsula. This system is now expected to move into the South Andaman Sea and track west-northwest.

This would undergo some intensification (into a likely depression) as it moves closer to coast. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast saw the system heading into the North Tamil Nadu-South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast for a landfall around November 16, according to initial conditions recorded on Sunday.

After crossing into land, the system is shown to set off wet weather over Rayalaseema, south and north interior Karnataka before sliding into the Arabian Sea and regenerating as another likely ‘low’ off coastal Karnataka. Some spill-over gains have also been indicated for Kerala as well.

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies has forecast that a stronger wave of rainfall would cross the Bay to lash the Tamil Nadu coast during the week that follows. These rains would push into adjoining Kerala as well.

Meanwhile, model predictions suggest that a westerly trough is likely to approach north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir around the same time as the ‘low’ springs up in the Bay. Rainfall or snow is expected over the hilly regions and adjoining plains of northwest India from mid-week.

Minimum temperatures are significantly above normal over parts of Rajasthan and less so over remaining parts of northwest and central India. This is expected to hold given the approach of the western disturbance with warm, moist air in the front.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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