The Hindu Business Line : Westerlies signals wet weather for northwest too

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 11 An incoming western disturbance is set to dictate weather over the hilly regions and plains of the northwest even as an expectant Bay of Bengal is bringing isolated heavy to scattered rains to parts of the southern peninsula.

The Chennai Met Centre said that the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning saw rains occur at a few places over Kerala. Isolated rainfall was reported from Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.

A preparatory cyclonic whirl set to intensify as a low-pressure area was located to southeast Bay of Bengal on Tuesday. The moisture-laden northeasterlies buffeting it had swept over much of the Bay while arching into the southern tip of the peninsula and Sri Lanka to the south.

SOUTHERLY RAINS

Most of the rainfall being reported was witnessed over these areas, with the Kanyakumari and Tirunelveli districts in south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala coming under some wet cover.

Forecasts for the next two days said isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

Meanwhile, the western disturbance is likely to cause scattered to fairly widespread precipitation activity over western Himalayan region over four days from Wednesday. The warm, moist air in the front had led minimum temperatures to rise above normal over parts of northwest and central India, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Rain or snow is likely to occur at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24hours and at a few places thereafter. Isolated rain or snow is likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand while isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over Punjab and Haryana from Thursday.

‘LOW’ GENESIS

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Tuesday said the ‘low’ is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas during next two days. Numerical weather prediction models indicate an initial west- northwestwards movement of the system and its further intensification.

The Joint Typhoon Waning Centre of the US Navy said that an area of convection located approximately 800 nautical miles (1500 km) east-southeast of Chennai had featured limited deep convection developing near an elongated low level circulation center (LLCC), or the nucleus of a building storm.

Low vertical wind shear and westward diffluence aloft (`window effect’ at the top) were two parameters identified as supporting the cause of further strengthening of the system. The maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 15 to 20 knots (28 to 37 km/hr). Because the LLCC is elongated and associated convection disorganised, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours was assessed as poor.

RAINS FORECAST

Rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala over the next few days. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over interior Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep.

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