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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 14 Thursday’s well-marked ‘low’ over the southeast Bay of Bengal intensified in quick time to become a depression on Friday and is on course to become the season’s second tropical cyclone.

Numbered 05B on Friday, the storm is forecast to erupt in landfall along coastal Andhra Pradesh by Saturday. Warmer waters to the immediate north caused it to swerve in that direction while prowling the high seas on Thursday.

Thus, Chennai and north Tamil Nadu are likely to be spared from a direct hit according to landfall outlook maintained by leading forecast models. Buffeting winds may pack peak speeds of up to 55 knots (102 km/h), gusting to 70 knots (129 km/h) just before landfall.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said 05B was located approximately 280 nautical miles (518 km) east of Chennai on Friday morning and had tracked northward at 5 knots (9 km) over the past six hours. Satellite imagery depicted good outflow and improved convective banding. Upper level analysis indicated favourable environment for continued intensification before landfall during the next 36 hours.

05B has been drawing in cool and dry northwesterlies from the plains of the north, which infiltrated much of the peninsula before being fed into the cyclonic wind pattern (anti-clockwise) over the Bay. As a result, minimum temperatures fell at a few places in north interior and south interior Karnataka, according to an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The IMD update also said the depression in the Bay system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a northwesterly direction towards the Andhra Pradesh coast. Rainfall has been forecast at most places in Andhra Pradesh with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the coastal areas and adjoining north Tamil Nadu during the next two days.

Squally winds reaching 55-65 km/h and gusting to 75 km/h are likely along and off the north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts during next two days commencing from today evening. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, at many places in the Chennai, Kanchipuram and Thiruvallur districts of north coastal Tamil Nadu and north coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places over rest north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Rayalaseema.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over north interior and south Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Kerala, Lakshadweep. A separate warning said isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.

Isolated heavy rain is also likely to occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chennai, Kanchipuram and Thiruvallur districts of north coastal Tamil Nadu during the same period.

To the north, a western disturbance lay parked over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir areas as an upper air system. Rainfall activity is likely to increase over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next two days.

Rain or snow is likely to occur at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir during next 48 hours and isolated thereafter. Isolated rain or snow is likely to occur over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next 24 hours. Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over Punjab and Haryana from Saturday onwards.

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