The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone Khai-Muk remnant causes rains to linger

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 17 Erstwhile cyclone Khai-Muk has weakened rapidly since encountering land, and only a remnant cyclonic circulation managed to cross the peninsular landmass and slide into the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka-Goa coasts on Monday.

The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that northeasterlies riding piggyback dumped moisture over most places in north interior Karnataka and at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning.

Forecast

Isolated rainfall occurred over Telangana too. Among stations recording heavy rainfall were Bhimavaram and Eluru (both West Godavari district) and Kaikalur (Krishna) at 9 cm each.

Forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Karnataka and south Tamil Nadu. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

Other places expected to receive showers over the next few days are Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Marathawada, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, south Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is expected to continue over the southern peninsula until Saturday, according to the short-to-medium outlook by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

NEXT WAVE

A fall in night temperatures will come about over northwest and adjoining central India as an intervening western disturbance exits the plains.

Meanwhile, IMD cited numerical weather prediction models to suggest that a fresh easterly wave is likely to cause scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over parts of south peninsular India for five days from Wednesday.

According to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, however, the easterly wave activity would be a spin-off from a prevailing tropical storm named ‘Noul’ prowling the waters of the South China Sea. Noul is expected to cross into Vietnam and weaken as a tropical depression.

LIMITING FACTORS

From here, it is shown to sneak into the Gulf of Thailand and cross the territorial waters into southeast Bay of Bengal around Wednesday.

The system would then start slowly to veer west-northwest and head towards the southeast coast of India.

In doing so, it would intensify as a tropical storm (deep depression) and would still have enough time and space to rustle up energy. According to private forecasters, the rain-cooled (from Khai-Muk) seawaters and impending westerly wave action would have a crucial say on its potential for further strengthening.

IMD has said in its outlook that a western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India from Wednesday. Isolated rain or snow is forecast for Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days and scattered thereafter.

Rain or snow is likely at a few places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand; isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Punjab and Haryana too.

London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group too sees a tropical storm developing in the Bay as a logical extension to a counterpart storm impacting Vietnam.

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