The Hindu Business Line : Easterly wave kicks up weather over southeast coast

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 19 A fresh easterly wave originating from the West Pacific-South China Sea and travelling west is impacting the Bay of Bengal, switching on some weather activity along the southeast coast already.

Easterly waves are parcels of disturbed weather and are a frequent occurrence during the northeast monsoon season. It carries weather in the ‘front’ only and has clearer skies in the rear.

In this manner, these waves dump moisture as showers or cloud bursts ahead of itself even as the rest of the caravan catches up from behind.

There have been occasions when easterly waves have intensified to become low-pressure areas, depressions and even cyclones.

The incoming wave is a fairly intense one and capable of creating weather over the next four to five days, according to an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday.

RAINS FORECAST

The Chennai Met Centre said in its forecast for the next two days that rain or thunder showers are likely to occur at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Rayalaseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal and south interior Karnataka.

Isolated heavy rain is likely over Thanjavur, Thiruvarur and Nagapattinam districts of coastal Tamil Nadu during the next two days.

Initial projections from the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the London-based storm tracker, Tropical Storm Risk Group, had hinted the possibility of the wave intensifying over the central Bay. But these are not being persisted with now.

LIKELY STORM

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees a strong weather system developing over the southwest Bay off the Tamil Nadu coast by the month-end.

Initial projections are that the system could barrel into the Tamil Nadu coast around November 29.

The confidence level in the eventuality becomes high in case subsequent model runs over the next few days sticking to the forecast.

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) seems to more or less agree with the scenario, suggesting a big blow-up of rains off and along the Tamil Nadu coast around this time.

The week ending November 26 will see the whole peninsula slip under varying intensity of a wet cover.

The rains would be concentrated along the Tamil Nadu coast, with spill-over effect growing into the peninsular tip and adjoining south Kerala.

Rains amounting up to 400 per cent above the normal for the week are forecast to fall over the north peninsula and adjoining central India, but less so over the central peninsula.

North and south interior Karnataka, Telengana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of Rayalaseema would likely to sit out.

In the North, scattered precipitation is likely to occur over the western Himalayan region and adjoining northern plains as a western disturbance dictates regional weather during next two days.

Rain or snow is likely to occur at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir during this period and isolated rain thereafter.

Similar weather is forecast for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. I

solated rain or thundershowers are likely to appear over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh and West Uttar Pradesh.

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