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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 21 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined the list of weather forecasters to set up a watch for a low-pressure area in the making over southeast Bay of Bengal.

IMD said in its outlook on Friday that it expected the ‘low’ to spring up around November 26, which fits in well with timelines projected by international models. Some of these suggest its calibrated growth into a strong weather system within a space of a couple of days.

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Senior Adviser to the Department of Science Technology, the speed of lateral movement and the convection pattern are indicative of another incoming easterly wave.

Migrant circulations from South China Sea have the potential of becoming strong systems in the Bay but it would be premature to talk about cyclogenesis (birth of a cyclone) just yet. Dr Gupta did not entirely rule out the eventuality, especially of November-borne systems travelling west-northwest in the Bay.

“This is the earliest signal that a ‘low’ is in the making,” Dr Gupta said of the IMD statement. But it’s too early to take a call on the direction of movement and the intensification potential this far ahead, he added.

Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts persisted with its outlook for a moderately strong system heading towards the Tamil Nadu coast while the US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre bet on a likely cyclone to emerge out of the system.

The IMD outlook said a prevailing easterly wave would help sustain the fairly widespread rain or thundershower activity over south peninsular India for another four more days.

Thundershowers may break out at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 24 hours and grow in intensity thereafter. A warning valid for the next two days said isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.

Meanwhile, the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at the University of Columbia has said in its seasonal outlook that Tamil Nadu and Kerala may witness above normal rainfall from January 2009 progressing well into the ensuing summer.

These forecasts are valid for the four quarters of December-January-February, January-February-March, February-March-April and March-April-May and might more or less replicate the wet weather observed during the same period last year. These rains are feared to have implications for seasonal crops in the region, including coffee and spices.

The Chennai Met Centre said the northeast monsoon was active over south Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Friday morning. Rainfall occurred at many places over south Tamil Nadu and at a few places over north Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep. Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.

Forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, south Kerala and Lakshadweep. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over north Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka.

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