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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov 24 The southwest Bay of Bengal has trumped forecasters by spinning up a ‘low’ off Sri Lanka and neighbourhood on Monday ahead of an anticipated and potent easterly wave.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) cited current meteorological analysis and interpretation of numerical weather prediction models to suggest that the system may concentrate into a depression during the next two days.

The cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay off south Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts has merged with the ‘low’. This would give the combined entity the wherewithal to undergo at least two rounds of intensification.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) indicated that the system could get a move to west-northwest to enter Tamil Nadu during this period.

This will drive up rainfall along the coast as well as to the west and southwest (interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala) to sustain vigorous monsoon conditions.

But the odd model forecast took the system funnelling itself into south Kerala and further into the Arabian Sea where it would track north along the coast. Easterlies to northeasterlies have been growing in strength over the past few days and are converging increasingly off Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu.

The build-up to the ‘low’ saw the northeast monsoon getting into a vigorous phase over Tamil Nadu and active over Kerala. Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, said this update from the Chennai Met Centre. Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Lakshadweep and at many places over interior Tamil Nadu, south Kerala and at a few places over north Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka.

An IMD forecast said that the rainfall activity is set to increase over extreme south peninsula and also extend northwards into more parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and adjoining Maharashtra.

Meanwhile, the GFS-FNMOC persisted with its forecast for the incoming easterly wave to rapidly become a cyclone, which was on Monday shown to hurtle towards the Chennai region.

The wave is forecast to show up over the southeast Bay just as the likely southwest Bay depression dies out around November 27. Intensification into subsequent stages would be rapid, and the eventual cyclone is shown to park itself just off the Chennai coast around December 1 until when forecasts were available.

But on Monday, the IMD outlook abstained from referring to previous day’s statement about the parent ‘low’ expected to take shape over the southeast Bay around Thursday as the easterly wave entered the territorial waters.

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