The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone Nisha’s remnant proves a soaker

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 28 A remnant of Tropical Cyclone Nisha spun across the peninsula overnight and glided into the southeast Arabian Sea where it was traced as a feeble low-pressure area off the Kerala and south Karnataka coasts on Friday.

Incursion of moisture from the Bay of Bengal in Nisha’s wake fanned by strong easterlies to northeasterly flows brought to bear vigorous northeast monsoon conditions over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that the 24 hours ending Friday morning saw rains break out at most places over these regions, at many places over south interior Karnataka and at a few places over Kerala and south Tamil Nadu.

STRONG FLOWS

A Global Forecast System (GFS) model outlook of the US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre indicated that the easterly flows would continue to be strong until December 1, weakening slightly thereafter.

Still, the GFS model saw another likely ‘low’ developing in the southeast Bay around this time which may later develop as a possible cyclone. As per initial conditions recorded on Friday, the likely cyclone could aim Chennai or the south coastal Andhra Pradesh for a hit around December 5.

This is a storm that models converged on much in advance but the genesis of which was delayed only by the intervening Tropical Cyclone Nisha. The Bay waters pulverised by the storm would need at least a week’s time to recoup the energies to be able to host a second successive storm.

Initial forecasts did not clearly fancy the chances of Nisha cropping up and had instead figured that an incoming easterly wave would build into a powerful cyclone to hit Chennai or thereabouts around December 1. This is now being pushed forward to December 5, although the landfall area could vary.

MORE RAINS

Forecast by the Chennai Met Centre for the next two days said the strong easterlies could be expected to cause rain or thundershowers at most places over north interior Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka, at many places over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north Kerala and south coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places over South Tamil Nadu, south Kerala, Lakshadweep, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal and north interior Karnataka.

A separate warning valid for the next 24 hours said scattered heavy to isolated very heavy rain is likely over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka. Isolated heavy rain is likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and north Kerala during the period.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are also likely over Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Vidarbha and south Chhattisgarh during next 24 hours.

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