The Hindu Business Line : Model runs discount cyclone threat for TN

Thiruvananthapuram, Dec. 2 International models have lately tended to mark down the intensification prospects of a brewing low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal but see a wet cover unfolding over coastal Tamil Nadu from later this week.

They are more or less convinced that the system would travel along a much southerly track than previously thought, and could give the skip to north coastal Tamil Nadu (around Chennai) for a place for landfall.

It is now shown to stroll into the southwest Bay waters already cooled down by the torrents (surface temperatures barely reaching 27 to 28 Deg C) triggered by Cyclone Nisha, which could prove a likely drag.

There would not be any marked deepening of the central pressure to make winds blow that much faster around the core as the system approaches the northern tip of Sri Lanka, the Palk Straits and the adjoining southern peninsular India.

SAME COURSE

This is more or less the course tracked by Nisha. Grazing the northern most tip of Sri Lanka would itself lead to some weakening prior to the more elaborate landfall over the south Tamil Nadu coast likely on Saturday.

After landfall, it would persist with the westward movement, and enter interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala before wading into the southeast Arabian Sea off the Kerala-Karnataka coasts.

Sea surface temperatures should be markedly above normal here (around 30 deg C, much above the 27.5 deg C threshold required for storms to breed) with models predicting a small but ‘warmer pool’ (up to 31 deg C) to the immediate west. The ensemble output from latest deterministic model inter-comparison also supports this outlook.

The Global Forecast System model runs by the US-based National Centres for Environmental Prediction and the Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) have indicated concentrated rainfall along the Tamil Nadu coast during the week beginning Tuesday.

There could be even be a follow-up ‘low’ taking shape over the southeast Bay around December 8, according to extended outlook by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy as well as the COLA.

IMD UPDATE

India Meteorological Department said in its update on Tuesday that the ‘low’ over southeast Bay could materialise during the next 24 hours and start moving west.

Forecast by the Chennai Met Centre said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Lakshadweep while they may be isolated over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka.

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