The Hindu Business Line : Keeping Doha going

The December meet hopes to make member-countries agree that whatever has been achieved so far will remain intact when work on the Doha Round resumes next year

The move by the WTO Director-General, Mr Pascal Lamy, to call a Ministerial meeting in the middle of this month cannot be aimed at wrapping up the extended negotiations on the Doha Round because there are still strong differences between the developing and developed economies on some critical issues in agriculture and industrial goods access. In fact, Mr Lamy has himself admitted that he is not certain about a deal of any sort being reached in Geneva in the course of the m eeting. The question then is: why have a meeting at all, especially when another failure like the one in July will hurt the prospects of the Doha Round even more?

The only sensible target for such a meeting would be to make member-countries agree that whatever has been achieved at the negotiating table over the past few years will remain intact when work on the Doha Round hopefully resumes some time next year. This is important because quite a lot of ground has in fact been covered where there is agreement among the principal protagonists, and it would be unfortunate if all that is pushed under the carpet when talks resume. There is a strong possibility that this may happen in view of the Barack Obama Administration taking over the reins of governance in the US early next year, not to speak of the Indian Lok Sabha elections that have to be held by May. If the Ministers assembling in Geneva give their word that whatever has been agreed will remain untouched even if new Governments assume office in member-countries, a lot of time will be saved in trying to complete talks on the Doha Round which is already three years behind schedule. This, however, does not mean that a successful Round is assured. On the contrary, the chances are that hurdles like the special safeguards mechanism and the US cotton subsidy will continue to scupper the talks unless there is a change of heart in capitals such as Washington and Brussels, of which there are hardly any signs.

In fact, the conditions today for a successful conclusion of the Doha Round have become even more difficult than they were earlier this year in view of the global recession. Mr Lamy has argued persuasively that, even in these difficult times when protectionist barriers are going up, the channels of trade should be kept open because “if you make trade work you make growth work, and if growth works, development works”. The logic is unexceptionable, but in times like these the big difference is that development becomes even more painful for certain developing economies because of a larger-than-usual adverse impact of cheap imports on domestic industry and employment. Clearly, Mr Lamy has a lot more convincing to do.