The Hindu Business Line : Treading with care

Till now, New Delhi’s response to Pakistani involvement in the Mumbai terror-strike has been carefully calibrated, for which the authorities need to be complimented. It is clear that one of the objectives of 26/11 was to raise bilateral tension between the two neighbours to a level which would make military engagement of the two armed forces inevitable. This would not only divert attention from the Mumbai happenings but would also worsen relations between Islamabad a nd New Delhi to such an extent that it would protect the jobs of those who want the conflict-scenario between the two countries to be maintained at a high pitch.

In fact, one is reminded of the 1999 Kargil scenario when certain people not happy with the Vajpayee-Nawaz Sharif initiatives to restore normality in bilateral relations staged a military adventure to upset the apple cart of the two Governments, the aftermath of which, as everyone knows, was General Musharraf’s bloodless coup. For nine long years after that popular electoral democracy in Pakistan was forced to take a back seat while the Pakistani armed forces held sway over the country, with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) being the nerve centre of the extended dictatorial regime.

A striking parallel

The parallel between the current scenario of India-Pakistan links, following the assumption of power by Asif Ali Zardari as President of Pakistan, and the Vajpayee-Nawaz Sharif tango is indeed striking. As with Mr Nawaz Sharif, the initial moves by Mr Zardari to normalise relations with New Delhi have been a departure from the immediate past of ties between the two countries. Few will forget the images of the new Pakistani President and the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, hugging each other when they met on the sidelines of a meeting in New York on September 28. The message of those pictures was the same as that projected by the “Lahore bus diplomacy” of a decade ago. Kargil followed the “bus diplomacy” phase and, today, the Mumbai carnage has come in the footsteps of the Zardari-Singh warming-up.

Since Kargil was engineered by a section within the Pakistani military, was Mumbai too contrived by the same elements in Pakistan, the principal objective being to stop the fledgling moves towards a normalisation of bilateral ties, a subsidiary target being to get Washington to recognise once again the indispensability of the Pakistani military establishment in the former’s fight with the Mujahideen in Afghanistan? This is, perhaps, why, immediately after the Mumbai carnage, Islamabad announced loud and clear that 100,000 troops would be relocated from the north-western frontier of Pakistan to areas in the east and the north bordering India, thereby weakening the fight against the Taliban.

Testing New Delhi’s patience

Where does General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the Pakistan Army Chief, stand in this entire issue? The answer has to be given keeping in mind the larger framework of his relations with the Islamic terrorist groups based in the north-west and Afghanistan, who also have de facto control over large tracts of Pakistan. The same question can be rephrased thus: Where does Gen. Kayani stand vis-À-vis the ISI which, as is clear today, is working hand in glove with forces like the al-Qaeda and the Lashkar-e-Toiba? Is policy with regard to the Pakistani armed forces being dictated by the ISI with Gen. Kayani and his men playing the role of mute bystanders?

What is clear is that the outlawed terrorist organisations want a full-scale armed conflict between Pakistan and India to further their own interests in the region, using the ISI (and through it the Pakistan Army) as a pawn. If this is a reasonably sensible scenario, New Delhi (working in tandem with Washington) should frustrate the dangerous game-plan by refusing to walk into the trap being set for it. Certainly, the patience of New Delhi will be tested to its limits, but there appears to be no alternative given the huge stakes involved in responding decisively with military force, which would be the normal thing to do in the given circumstances.

RANABIR RAY CHOUDHURY

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