The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ stays put, presides over locally wet weather

Thiruvananthapuram, Dec. 9 The low-pressure area over Comorin and neighbourhood is staying put with a trough extending into the southwest Bay of Bengal bringing active monsoon conditions yet again over Tamil Nadu.

According to the Chennai Met Centre, rainfall occurred at many places over Tamil Nadu and at a few places over Lakshadweep. Isolated rainfall occurred over Kerala and south interior Karnataka.

Among stations recording heavy rainfall (in cm) are Puducherry Airport and Tiruvarur-9 each; Needamangalam, Nagapattinam and Aravakurichi-8 each; and Parangipettai, Kodavasal, Valangaiman and Rameswaram-7 each.

International models seem to suggest that the ‘low’ would become embedded into the larger Indian Ocean-to-the Pacific seasonal trough housing the south Pacific convergence zone.

The system is shown to loiter around the seas off the Kerala coast for a day or two, before intensifying and moving further away.

The Indian Ocean is forecast to concurrently host at least two other storms — to the southeast and southwest — within the pan-ocean trough stretching west to east.

The US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System sees the southeast Indian Ocean system moving in a west-northwest direction in line with the southeast coast of Sri Lanka.

If this were to take the likely storm for a landfall there, it may trigger another round of weather over the southern Indian peninsula as well.

EASTERLY WINDS

There are also indications that the South China Sea may be warming up for some action, with implications for the Bay of Bengal to its west. The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees the possibility of a likely wave being transmitted to the Indian territorial waters in this manner.

The easterly monsoon winds are forecast to hold strong along the south peninsular latitudes during this phase. The immediate north and adjoining central India would, however, have to contend with the dry winds originating from the cooler north Bay of Bengal.

In its forecast for the next two days, the Chennai Met Centre said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Kerala and Lakshadweep and at a few places over north Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, interior Tamil Nadu, and coastal and south interior Karnataka.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over north interior Karnataka. Isolated heavy rain has been warned of in coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days.

WESTERLY SYSTEM

Meanwhile, a weather-creating western disturbance persisted over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood. Helpful cyclonic circulations have been traced to over west Rajasthan and Punjab.

Scattered to fairly widespread precipitation is forecast for the western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours and isolated thereafter. Rain or snow is likely at many places over Jammu and Kashmir. Isolated rain or snow is likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

The steaming engine upfront of the western disturbance has driven minimum temperatures by 5 to 8 degree Celsius above normal over parts of Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh and 3 to 5 degree Celsius over plains of northwest India and Gujarat, apart from parts of central and east India.

The minimum temperatures are likely to fall gradually over Gujarat, Rajasthan, central and northwest India after two days as the westerly system passes to the east.

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