The Hindu Business Line : Northeast monsoon ends; TN makes major gains

Thiruvananthapuram, Dec. 31 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared that the northeast monsoon rains have ceased over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry has had a profitable outing during the season that commenced during mid-October with normal to excess rains spreading over the entire Met sub-division. Eighteen out of the 31 districts here recorded excess rainfall, while it was normal over the rest.

There was no such luck with the State of Kerala (-22 per cent), the Met sub-divisions of coastal Andhra Pradesh and north interior Karnataka as rain-bearing systems from the Bay of Bengal chose a southerly track across areas peninsula.

BUZZ IN BAY

A few models continue to forecast the resurgence of easterly winds across the Bay and into the peninsula starting this weekend (around January 3, 2009). Spotty rains are being forecast for Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu.

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies ventures to suggest a better organised rainfall building across the Bay during the second week of New Year and impacting Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu in quick succession.

The causative system may even interact with a circulation in the westerlies dipping into the peninsula and set up a string of thundershowers along a narrow corridor through central and east-central India. Coastal Tamil Nadu and south Kerala are forecast to receive moderate rainfall.

A preparatory trough of low pressure has been persisting over the southeast Bay over the past few days.

The IMD said current meteorological analysis suggested likely fall in minimum temperatures during next two days. They will rise again as the warm and moist front-end of the incoming disturbance influences regional weather.

INDUCED CIRCULATION

On Wednesday, this disturbance was located to over north Pakistan. It will also carry an induced cyclonic circulation as moisture from Arabian Sea gets streamed in. The system will affect the western Himalayas and the plains of northwest India from the weekend.

Cold wave conditions prevailed over parts of north Madhya Maharashtra and at isolated places in south Madhya Maharashtra. Cold day conditions prevailed over parts of Punjab.

Night temperatures were appreciably below normal in Konkan and Goa and over parts of Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka and Kerala as cold northeasterlies continued to prevent warm easterlies from finding their way into the peninsula.

The US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric System persisted with its outlook of easterlies managing to make a dent into the northeasterly flows as the pivotal anti-cyclone across the border begins to crumble from next week.