The Hindu Business Line : Exports dip marginally in Dec

With a weakened Indian rupee, there is a comfort on the foreign trade front since the heavy deceleration in exports noticed during October and November 2008 has moderated as export growth in dollar terms was 1.1 per cent lower at $12.69 billion in December 2008 against $12.82 billion in December 2007. Trade deficit, too, has come down to a single digit of $7.5 billion in December 2008 against double-digit deficits seen every month since July 2008.

Import growth, too, slowed down on the back of a depreciating rupee to 8.8 per cent at $20.25 billion ($18.6 billion), according to provisional figures released by the Department of Commerce based on data from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S).

Trade policy analysts, however, contend that the depreciating rupee would do little to help exports, as global demand would remain anaemic in the coming months amid tight access to credit.

Cumulatively, the country’s exports during the first three quarters of the current fiscal registered a growth of 17.1 per cent in dollar terms at $131.99 billion ($112.74 billion), while in rupee terms the export growth was 28.7 per cent at Rs 5,85,594 crore (Rs 4,54,997 crore).

Cumulative value of imports during April-December 2008 at $225.80 billion ($171.71 billion) showed a high growth of 31.5 per cent, while in rupee terms imports amounted to Rs 10,03,047 crore (Rs 6,93,445 crore), a growth of 44.8 per cent.

Commenting on import growth slowdown in December, Moody’s economy.com said the massive slowdown in export manufacturing would reduce India’s orders for intermediate goods from overseas.

However, it said the pace of slowdown in imports could be milder than that of exports as the country still has an appetite for resources used in infrastructure development.

Oil imports dip

Oil imports in December 2008 at $4.71 billion ($6.82 billion) was 30.9 per cent lower, reflecting the drastic decline in global crude prices in recent months, while cumulatively oil imports showed a growth of 44.8 per cent at $78.82 billion ($54.42 billion) during April-December 2008.

Non-oil imports in December 2008 at $15.54 billion ($11.78 billion) was 31.9 per cent higher, while cumulatively non-oil imports registered a 25.3 per cent growth at $146.98 billion ($117.29 billion).

As a result of a higher import growth and a high export growth, trade deficit during the first three quarters of the current fiscal zoomed to $93.81 billion ($58.9 million).