The Hindu Business Line : Import growth continues to show downward trend in Feb

New Delhi, March 12 Quick estimates of foreign trade figures for the month of February 2009 show that import growth rate decline continued for the second month in succession by close to 19 per cent in dollar terms, following an 18 per cent decline in January.

Official sources citing the quick estimates of the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics (DGCI&S) said that overall import growth, which was 25.3 per cent higher in the first ten months of the current fiscal, slowed down to 19.2 per cent in the April-February 2008-09 period to $257.7 billion. In February 2009, import growth was more markedly on the wane by registering a decline of close to 19 per cent at $16.8 billion ($20.8 billion).

Overall export growth during April to February 2008-09 decelerated to a single digit of 8 per cent (7.8 per cent more precisely) at $154.7 billion ($143.6 billion in April-February 2007-08), the decline in export growth was also sharp in February 2009 at 21.2 per cent at $11.9 billion ($15.1 billion). This puts paid to the prospects of exports even clocking the scaled-down target of $175 billion this fiscal, against the original ambitious target of $200 billion.

Order book

With the downturn in the global economy getting embedded, the order book of Indian exporters remains bearish, and the last month of the fiscal might not see any upturn in export receipts, officials admit worryingly. The provisional figures for the month of February 2009 would be released only on April 1, 2009 but the portents from quick estimates do not herald any better numbers as the DGCI&S footnotes say that April-February 2008-09 figures are based “on latest available data and estimate for non-receipted data”.

On the export front, major items such as gems and jewellery, basic chemicals, engineering goods, readymade garments of all textile and also petroleum products registered double-digit declines. Petroleum products export nosedived by 22.5 per cent in February 2009 at $18.44 billion ($23.79 billion) owing to the impact of the softening crude prices, though overall such exports during the 11 months of the current fiscal grew by a moderate 8.6 per cent at $26.3 billion ($24.3 billion).

Iron ore exports plunged by 50 per cent at $398 million ($790 million). Oil meals export which was $348 million in February 2008 dropped to $169 million in February 2009.

On the import front, major items like machine tools, machinery, electrical and non-electrical, transport equipment all marked pronounced fall, while project goods imports picked up handsomely to register 134 per cent growth at $208 million in February ($89 million). The tepid manufacturing growth of 3 per cent logged in the first 10 months as revealed by IIP data today would be due to the decline in non-oil imports, particularly capital goods which continued in February too.

Gold, silver

Interestingly, import of gold and silver in the first 11 months of the current fiscal declined by 3.4 per cent for the first time in several years at $15.8 billion ($16.4 billion) and in February by a massive 73.3 per cent at $304 million ($1.13 billion).

Though overall import of petroleum, crude and products showed a relatively robust growth of 17.3 per cent at $$82.7 billion during April-February 2008-09, their import plunged by a massive 46 per cent in February 2009 at $4.1 billion ($7.7 billion).

In rupee terms, exports were up 21.9 per cent at Rs 7,04,341 crore during the first 11 months of the current fiscal (Rs 5,77,889 crore) but they were down by 2.3 per cent in February 2009 at Rs 58,685 crore (Rs 60,071 crore).

Imports were up 34.8 per cent during the period April-February 2008-09 at Rs 11,73,309 crore (Rs 8,70,399 crore), while in February 2009 they were up by a measly 0.6 per cent at Rs 83, 127 crore (Rs 82,661 crore).

Related Stories:
Jan exports nosedive 16%; imports slump 18%
Oilmeal exports fall 42% in February
Exports likely to fall short of target by $25 b

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