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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, March 31 North-East India continued to witness unsettled weather, including a second successive hailstorm and heavy spells of rain, even as a heat wave started building over central and east-central India.

Isolated thunder squalls or hailstorm clocking wind speeds exceeding 50 km/h have been warned of in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.

A couple of international weather models have hinted at the possibility of a storm brewing in the Bay of Bengal during the second week of April.

The fickle weather in the North-East has been attributed to the presence of a cyclonic circulation hovering above the region. A trough extends from this system up to north coastal Andhra Pradesh through Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa.

This also serves as the conduit for ‘incendiary’ moisture that fuels the ongoing weather activity with ample help from westerlies to southwesterlies blowing in from the Bay of Bengal.

The maximum heating belt will anchor itself towards east India before seeking to expand footprint to the west over west-central and northwest India. A ‘limb’ will extend to the west coast in due course.

According to international models, the week starting April 7 would see some weather developing in the south-central Bay of Bengal. Early indications suggest that a strong weather system may develop under easterly wave activity.

The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services sees the possibility of a system of cyclonic strength developing around April 14.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) too is more or less in agreement, with a major wave of organised rainfall shown as stalking the Bay heading in from a southeast direction.

According to meteorological experts, it is too early to take a call on a cyclone just yet, although the pre-monsoon period (April-May) has been known to host one. A major enabler would be the mostly nil wind shear, a threat building storms have to contend with during monsoon.

Meanwhile, a fresh western disturbance is expected to impact the western Himalayan region from Wednesday. The IMD is now keeping a watch for a follow-up western disturbance, third during the first 10 days of April, entering the northwest around Saturday.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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