The Hindu Business Line : Winning Tamil votes with Eelam

The DMK chief, Mr M. Karunanidhi, has tied himself into knots and indulged in flip-flop about the LTTE supremo, Prabhakaran. This is a clear indication that the former is nervous about the outcome of the elections, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

The DMK chief, Mr M. Karunanidhi

It is election time and the chieftains of the two most important Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu have been quick to embrace the cause of Sri Lankan Tamils. Military offensives launched on the LTTE by the Sri Lankan government have always been emotive issues in Tamil Nadu and the last few months have seen violent clashes between the advocates and police in Chennai over the battering of the LTTE.

But come the Lok Sabha election season, which coincides with the Sri Lankan forces zeroing in on the LTTE, cornered in a small patch of land in the North, and now holding an estimated 70,000 Tamil civilians hostage in the no fire zone (NFZ), and the hearts of the two main players in the Tamil Nadu electoral scene have started bleeding for Sri Lankan Tamils.

In this great show of sympathy, the first couple of rounds have gone to the AIADMK chief, Ms J. Jayalalithaa. A critic of the LTTE for years, and on its hit list, she was first off the block to read the public mood in Tamil Nadu. On March 9, she went on a day-long fast to express solidarity with the Tamil civilians caught in the war zone. She slammed both the Central and State governments for failing to send “humanitarian aid” to help the Sri Lankan Tamils and urged New Delhi to use its clout with the Sri Lankan government to enforce an “immediate ceasefire”.

That, of course, did not happen, but Ms Jayalalithaa had scored a political point. She is the same leader who lambasted the LTTE in the past and as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, jailed her present ally Vaiko for inflammatory public speeches in favour of the LTTE.

During the last few weeks, and particularly after Ms Jayalalithaa’s fast, the DMK chief, Mr M. Karunanidhi, long considered to be a much more passionate votary of the Eelam cause than his bete noir, has stepped up rhetoric on the Sri Lankan Tamil issue. Three days ago, he sent a telegram to the Prime Minister saying that if the UPA Government did not enforce a permanent ceasefire in Sri Lanka, it should snap all diplomatic ties with the island nation.

The AIADMK chief, Ms. J. Jayalalithaa

This has resulted in New Delhi sharpening its demand that the Tamil civilians should be given all protection, humanitarian aid should be stepped up in the region, etc.

But all of a sudden, Mr Karunanidhi dropped a bombshell on Sunday by saying in an interview to a TV channel that (LTTE supremo) “Prabhakaran is my good friend.” Playing with words and evading straightforward replies to pointed questions he tried to draw a fine line between the LTTE and its chief, and stated that “some people in the LTTE may be terrorists but that is not his (Prabhakaran’s) fault.” When his daughter and Rajya Sabha MP, Ms Kanimozhi, who was present at the interview, interjected to say that what the interviewer was asking was if he considered Prabhakaran a terrorist, the DMK chief said, “I don’t see him thus.” At one point, Mr Karunanidhi even laughed and said “I am not a terrorist”.

Clearly endorsing the LTTE’s demand for a separate Tamil homeland, the DMK chief said: “The goals of the LTTE are great. They operate with the wonderful goal of establishing Tamil Eelam. However, somewhere along the line, terrorists entered the scene without their knowledge.”

Congress shocked

The DMK’s ally, the Congress, was shocked by this declaration and its spokesman, Mr Kapil Sibal, wasted no time in distancing his party from Mr Karnanidhi’s ‘friendship’ with Prabhakaran and said: “That may be his personal opinion. But we do believe that LTTE is a terrorist organisation and all those involved in LTTE’s activities are terrorists.” He added that the Indian government “expects the Sri Lankan government to hand over him (Prabhakaran) to us in the event of his getting captured.”

Mr Karunanidhi too strove, on Monday, to lighten the blow by denying that he had given a clean chit to the LTTE. “I never said LTTE is not a terror group. I expressed concern for the Tamil cause in Sri Lanka. The LTTE was not started as an extremist organisation like the Naxalite movement. It was started as a liberation movement but later became an extremist organisation,” he told reporters.

In a message clearly aimed at its ally, the Congress, he added, “We cannot forgive the LTTE for killing Rajiv Gandhi; Sriperumbudur cannot be forgotten.”

Sri Lanka reacts

There was a sharp reaction from the Sri Lankan government to Mr Karunanidhi’s comments. The Sri Lankan Minister for Social Welfare, Mr Douglas Devananda, who is also the chairman of the task force for rehabilitation and development of North (Sri Lanka), attributed Mr Karunanidhi’s comments to “shrewd diplomacy” and said they were obviously made “for electoral gains. Mr Karunanidhi is a Chanakya. He knows what to say and when — not that he is not aware of Prabhakaran’s attitude.”

He also reminded Mr Karunanidhi that “Prabhakaran has kept nearly 70,000 innocent Tamil civilians as hostage and the LTTE is using them as a human shield.”

While the man perceived as ‘Chanakya’ has tied himself into knots and indulged in flip-flop, Ms Jayalalithaa has been smarter. Without extending any support to the LTTE or its chief, for many weeks now she has continuously and categorically expressed sympathy for the suffering of 2 lakh Tamils trapped in the war zone.

She categorically said that if the Sri Lankan government failed to meet the legitimate aspirations of the Tamils there and grant them an autonomous State, she would work towards creating a separate Eelam.” No mention of Prabhakaran or LTTE here!

The AIADMK chief has never missed an opportunity to taunt Mr Karuninidhi on his “failure” to do anything for the trapped Tamil civilians in the war zone though he was part of the UPA government at the Centre.

DMK nervous

The DMK chief’s flip-flop is a clear indication that he is nervous about the outcome of the elections. Ms Jayalalithaa is not only sitting pretty with the DMK Front’s allies of 2004 — the PMK, the MDMK, the CPI(M) and the CPI — in her camp, she has ample ammunition in her kitty to train on the DMK.

Before firming up her alliances, she threw a dart at the Congress and told its leadership in no uncertain terms that the party stood only to lose by going into the “quicksand” with the DMK. She recalled her closeness to Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, but wasn’t able to impress upon its present leadership. Remember how she had launched personal attacks against Ms Sonia Gandhi in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections by attacking her Italian origin, addressing her constantly as “Antonia Maino”, etc?

For Ms Jayalalithaa the strongest point of attack is on the issue of the number of power centres within the Karunanidhi family that direct the party. She knows too well that, at best, the DMK Government in Tamil Nadu is a minority government and after the PMK’s withdrawal of support, would be at the mercy of the Congress. The DMK has only 95 MLAs in an assembly that requires a simple majority of 118. This majority is now made up with support of the 35 Congress MLAs.

The worst case and nightmarish scenario for the DMK would be one in which the AIADMK gets a substantial number of MPs from Tamil Nadu, which obviously would be at the DMK’s cost. And if the UPA is within sniffing distance of power at the Centre and if the AIADMK is in a position to give it that final push, what is going to prevent replacement of the stronger Dravidian party at the cost of the weaker one?

No prices for guessing under what terms Ms Jayalalithaa would extend such support. Mr Vaiko has started hailing her as a probable Prime Minister, but a chief minister’s post seems to be a more viable bet. With the PMK, MDMK, and the Left parties already with her, extension of Congress support can make Ms Jayalalithaa Tamil Nadu CM once again, and without an election!

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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