The Hindu Business Line : Delimitation may change equation for Advani

Gandhinagar: Delimitation and various other factors have made the battle of the ballot interesting in Gandhinagar where the BJP veteran and NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate, Mr L. K. Advani, is seeking re-election to the Lok Sabha for the fifth time in a multi-cornered contest.

Delimitation has ‘affected’ the Advani family curiously. Although it will still cast its vote on April 30 at a polling booth in Shahpur, this Assembly constituency is no longer part of the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha seat but that of the new Ahmedabad (West) seat, reserved for the Scheduled Castes. Thus, the Advani family itself will not be able to vote for its elder.

Well-oiled campaign

Mr Advani’s campaign is being managed by the well-oiled ruling BJP machinery which is banking on the achievements of the Narendra Modi Government and the new promise to bring back the “Rs 70,000 crore worth of black-money” allegedly stashed away by Indians in Swiss banks and other havens. The BJP believes it will be a cake-walk for their old warhorse.

Yet, nothing is certain in politics, and Mr Advani knows it well. Thus, when submitting his nomination papers on April 8, he cautioned party workers against “complacence” and “overconfidence”, a la the 2004 India Shining campaign.

Mr Advani also knows how in 1999 the BJP was taken by surprise in the neighbouring Lok Sabha constituency of Mehsana, a party citadel, that had elected its nominee Dr A. K. Patel even in 1984, in the post-Indira Gandhi assassination Congress wave of 1984. But in 1999, a “complacent” and “overconfident” BJP, basking in the glory of the Kargil victory, saw Dr Patel, then a Union Minister, being defeated by a rebel, Mr Atmaram Patel.

So, Mr Advani is not taking any chances. Even as he campaigns elsewhere, his fortress is being guarded by his son, Jayant, and daughter, Pratibha. Mr Advani had won the Gandhinagar seat in 1991 (by a margin of 1.25 lakh votes), 1998 (2.76 lakh), 1999 (1.88 lakh) and in 2004 (2.17 lakh). Barring 1999, when his Congress rival was Mr T. N. Seshan, former Chief Election Commissioner, all other rivals were virtually unknown lightweights.

Now, he is being challenged by, among others, Ms Mallika Sarabhai, noted dancer-activist, who is contesting as an Independent with the support of a few NGOs. Neither she nor the BSP candidate, Mr Rakesh Pandey, a film actor, is seen as a major challenge for Mr Advani. But delimitation could be.

For, after the delimitation exercise, the Gandhinagar constituency — comprising seven Assembly segments with 15.43 lakh voters — has lost the Ellisbridge Assembly constituency, a BJP bastion that used to give Mr Advani a lead of 50,000 votes. Instead, the Congress strongholds Kalol and Sanand, where the BJP would usually lagged by 10,000-20,000 votes, have been tagged to Gandhinagar.

Interestingly, the Congress is promising to ‘rebuild’ around 250 temples demolished by the Modi Government in Gandhinagar last year as part of an anti-encroachment drive. So, the pro-temple party faces the ‘anti-temple’ stigma in Gandhinagar. But the Congress may not be able to cash in on this issue as apparently the local people were actually happy with the demolitions as these temples were being used for every thing else but worship, Mr Yamal Vyas, a BJP spokesman, told Business Line.

Patels to back congress

Another important factor is the potential consolidation of the ‘Patel anger’ against the BJP after the sidelining of veteran leader and Mr Modi’s predecessor, Mr Keshubhai Patel. The two major Patel groups, Leuva and Kadva, cutting across party lines, are for the first time in many years reportedly uniting in favour of the Congress candidate, Mr Suresh Patel, instead of the BJP. In the pre-Modi days, the Patels constituted the core of the BJP base and were primarily responsible for bringing the saffron party to power in Gujarat. It remains to be seen if this Patel consolidation yields any fruit for the Congress.

Patels number around 2.50 lakh in the constituency, and the Thakores, mostly pro-Congress, 1.50 lakh. Together, they constitute nearly 20 per cent of the electorate in Gandhinagar. Accompanied by the disgruntled Patels and Thakore leaders, Mr Suresh Patel, a sitting Congress MLA from Kalol, is moving from one temple to another trying to canvass support against Mr Advani. In 2004, the Congress had fielded a Thakore candidate in Gandhinagar.

Two other factors weighing on the BJP are the severe heat-wave sweeping across Gujarat, and the April 30 IPL match, scheduled to start at 4 p.m. that day. About 10 per cent of voting in Gujarat is usually reported in the last one hour on the polling day, particularly in summer. Clearly, the BJP will try to convince the people to vote first and then watch the cricket match!

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