The Hindu Business Line : Centre raises foodgrain, oilseeds output estimate

Krishi Bhawan’s latest third Advance Estimates of crop production puts total foodgrain production at 229.85 million tonnes (mt), against 227.88 mt in the earlier second Advance Estimates released in February.

The upward revision is mainly on account of rice and maize. The 2008-09 rice production, now reckoned at 99.37 mt, would be an all-time-high. On the other hand, the size of the wheat crop has been marginally revised downwards to 77.63 mt.

Oilseeds

The Ministry also expects production of oilseeds and cotton for 2008-09 to be higher than the earlier assessed levels. Soyabean output was slated to be 9.94 mt in the first Advance Estimate of September 25, which was subsequently revised downwards to 9.05 mt in the second Advance Estimate and now upped to 10.15 mt.

It is quite the other way in the case of sugarcane, where the crop was first assessed at 294.66 mt and then successively reduced to 290.45 mt and 289.23 mt.

better than expected

On the whole, 2008-09 has turned out to be a better than expected year for agriculture, notwithstanding the erratic behaviour of the south-west monsoon in States such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

But it is not as good as 2007-08, which saw record output of total foodgrains, wheat, coarse cereals (specifically maize), oilseeds (groundnut and soyabean) and cotton.

Our Chennai Bureau reports: Last year, wheat production was a record 78.57 mt. Heavy rains in parts of Punjab and Haryana during the first week of April have affected wheat production to an extent. Soyabean output has been estimated a record, much above the projection far higher than the 7.8 mt estimated by the industry.

Mustard/rapeseed production is also seen higher than last year and this, too, is more than the estimate of 6.5 million mt made by the industry.

Oilseeds scenario

The overall oilseeds output this year has beeen projected at 28.13 mt, at least 3.5 mt higher than industry estimates.

Cotton production projections have been rasied by over one mt from the second advance estimates at 23.27 million bales. But this differs from the estimates made by the Cotton Advisory Board, which takes into credit the third picking of the bolls.

The advisory board, comprising industry, trade and farmer representatives, has projected the output at 25 million bales.

In the current estimate, the ministry has also raised projections for groundnut production by over 0.6 mt, while for sunflower it has been upped by 20,000 tonnes.

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