The Hindu Business Line : As Election 2009 comes to a close, political manoeuvrings begin

New Delhi: Wednesday’s elections in 86 constituencies spread across seven States and two Union Territories will mark the end of the nearly month-long polling process to the 543 Lok Sabha seats of the country. The results would come out after an interval of three more “long” days, on May 16.

As the world’s biggest democratic exercise comes to a close charting a meandering path, the single-most dominant factor is political uncertainty. It is indeed crystal clear that neither the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) nor the Bharatiya Janata Party-headed National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would get a simple majority. The manoeuvrings by the two big parties — the Congress and the BJP — in the final lap of the polls to win over new allies underlined this fact.

The Congress went to the extent of making an overture to the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), which has been a partner of the NDA for nearly a decade and half. The NDA, on its part, managed to impel the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), a member of the non-Congress, non-BJP Grand Alliance in Andhra Pradesh, to attend an NDA rally in Punjab.

Undoubtedly, these efforts of the two big parties are bound to intensify after the announcement of the results. In the process, parties belonging to the Fourth Front — formed mid-way through the electioneering — as well as the non-Congress, non-BJP formation, consisting of the Left parties, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), is expected to acquire better political bargaining prospects.

No universal appeal

The two big players have failed to impart the decisive thrust to cross the 272-seat simple majority mark on account of a variety of factors. To start with, the campaign of slogans of the Congress and the BJP did not have universal appeal. The Congress sought to highlight the track-record of the UPA government in the social sector and promised inclusive governance. The BJP had jointly and severally sought to advance such issues as national security; the need to bring back black-money stashed in Swiss Banks and use it for nation building; and using Information Technology (IT) for the overall development of various sectors. Selectively, it also deployed its Hindutva agenda.

While the initiatives of the Congress such as the waiver of bank loans of farmers and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) did evoke a positive response across a large number of States, the UPA Government’s failure in controlling price rise and the widespread loss of jobs in the last year of its governance diluted its appeal. The BJP’s campaign too had a mixed response. Its security plank was demolished time and again by the Congress as well as other parties by invoking issues such as the attack on Parliament and the Kandahar episode during its rule.

Overall, a perception that the Congress was better suited to run the country at the national level did come about during the campaign, but it was also marred by the observations that the party has a penchant for misusing power. Such instances as the official withdrawal of the Red Corner notice against Ottavio Quattrocchi , an accused in the Bofor’s case and a relative of the Congress president, Ms Sonia Gandhi, as well as the quashing of the FIR against the former Minister, Mr Jagdish Tytler, in the 1984 anti-Sikh riot case provided fodder to this observation.

Regional Issues

In a number of States, regional issues held sway with economic policy matters and developmental questions forming the basis. The preponderance of the regional factors was evident in the popular support the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) and the TRS — which champions the cause of a separate Telangana state — evoked in Bihar and the Telangana regions of Andhra Pradesh respectively.

In terms of community orientation towards politics, a significant shift was noticeable among the Muslim minorities. Letting go of decades long opposition to the Congress, large segments of the community moved towards the party, particularly in the Hindi heartland States of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. This is bound to negatively impact Fourth Front’s Bihar-based parties such as the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Ram Vilas Paswan-led Lok Janshakthi Party (LJP) and to a lesser extent the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh. Ms Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) too is expected to feel the tremors of this shift.

Still, in the context of the two big parties failing to cross or even get close to a majority mark, the political value of all these regional players would accentuate after the results. In short, an election with an uncertain result is likely to throw up a lot many confusing political manoeuvres and movements in the days to come.