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Thursday, Jun 04, 2009
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Business Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Thursday, Jun 04, 2009 ePaper | Mobile/PDA Version | Audio | Blogs |
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Climate & Weather Agri-Biz & Commodities - Climate & Weather Bay ‘low’ put off by another day 
Vinson Kurian Thirruvananthapuram, June 3 The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has delayed by one more day the anticipated formation of a low-pressure area over north Bay of Bengal. An IMD update issued on Wednesday said the ‘low’ would become more marked (intensify) in due course but, unlike on the previous day, it did not press two rounds of intensification into a depression. SIMILAR OUTLoOKThe European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) too, plumped for a similar outlook in its update on Wednesday given the elbowroom, or the lack of it, in the area of storm genesis. While the IMD did not indicate the track for movement, the ECMWF and at least three major international models concurred that an eastward track towards Myanmar was the most likely possibility. TRACK ‘SEALED’This track is more or less ‘sealed,’ given the forecast of a fresh western disturbance and associated westerly winds from the northwest of India. The western disturbance is likely to cause isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers over western Himalayan region from Thursday. The landfall of the Bay system would take place on Monday over the Myanmar coast to the accompaniment of heavy rainfall that could spill over to Bangladesh and the North-East. SUBDUED FOR NOWMeanwhile, the IMD has said the monsoon is likely to remain subdued over south peninsula until such time as the Bay ‘low’ evolves. But normal activity will continue over the North-East thanks to the presence of a trough running down from sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim to northwest Bay. A good augury for the incoming secondary monsoon pulse is the offshore trough at sea level that extends from Karnataka to Kerala coast. This trough is one feature that would sustain the monsoon along the west coast. Indications are that the trough would hold up at least until June 16 up till when forecasts were available from international models ensuring good precipitation over the peninsula. PRESSURE GRADIENTThe IMD cited numerical weather prediction models to suggest the strengthening of the pressure gradient (from the ‘high’ to upcountry ‘low’) over Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the next few days. Rain or thundershowers have been forecast at a few places over Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the next two days and increase thereafter. Thundershowers are likely at many places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal Karnataka and at a few places over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra. Forecast by the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at a few places over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh and interior Karnataka. More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather
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