The Hindu Business Line : Bay ‘low’ seen reviving monsoon activity

Thiruvananthapuram, June 5 The anticipated low-pressure area beat India Meteorological Department (IMD) predictions to materialise on Friday with prospects for intensification.

The ‘low’ took shape over northwest Bay of Bengal and forecasts indicate an easterly to northeasterly movement towards Myanmar.

The system is expected to cause rainfall at many places over the coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal during the next two days.

PULL EFFECT

The ‘pull’ effect would have a cascading impact on monsoon over the west coast where an offshore trough has sprung back to life from south Konkan-Goa to Karnataka.

A warning said that isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over coastal Karnataka during the next two days. Isolated heavy rain is also likely over Kerala, Lakshadweep and the Ghat areas of south interior Karnataka.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Rayalaseema.

The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Karnataka and at a few places over south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.

MONSOON ADVANCE

Current meteorological conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon over some parts of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa, the IMD said.

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University sees wetter than average rainfall for Kerala coast, coastal Karnataka and south Konkan over the six-day period ending June 11. Mumbai would receive only light showers during this period.

Kerala (especially the northern region) and coastal Karnataka are estimated to receive 20 per cent more rain than the average recorded for the period during 1979 to 2004. .

EL NINO?

The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have signalled that the tropical Pacific might undergo transition to an ‘El Nino’ phase.

Sea-surface temperatures cool over the tropical Pacific during this event marked by suppressed rain activity while convection and rains get driven away to the east Pacific. During a ‘La Nina’ phase, these conditions are reversed.

El Nino is traditionally considered inimical to prospects of an ongoing Indian monsoon. But transition from the current ‘neutral’ phase would be gradual, according to Dr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist at the Tokyo-based Frontier Research Centre for Global Change (FRCGC).

Dr Luo informed Business Line that the El Nino would not go on to become full-blown, but would at best be a weak or a medium-strong event.

IOD PHASE

The BoM has also forecast the possibility of a positive ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’ (IOD) when southwest Indian Ocean warms up anomalously relative to the southeast.

The condition is reversed in a negative IOD phase with implications for the monsoon.

Projections by the FRCGC, which discovered the IOD phenomenon, favour an evolving negative IOD this year. Dr Luo was of the view that the warm anomalies over southwest Indian Ocean may have prompted the BoM to come out with a positive IOD outlook.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Bay ‘low’ seen reviving monsoon activity

Demat accounts swell on big-ticket IPO hopes

Corporate fund-raising picks up

SC dismisses Mumbai SEZ plea for staying land acquisition

Net direct tax collection increases 16.88% in May

Key executive pay packages zoom at top 3 firms

Desi Bt cotton set to blossom in farms this year

Bank credit declines second time this fiscal

NBFCs on comeback trail with better rural demand

Markets this week