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Our Bureau

New Delhi, June 24 The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has downgraded its South-West monsoon rainfall forecast for the country to “below normal” from the earlier “near normal” prognosis.

According to the IMD’s second stage forecast released here on Wednesday by the Minister of State for Science and Technology and Earth Science, Mr Prithviraj Chavan, the total rainfall during the current monsoon season (June-September) is likely to be only 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA) for these four months. The all-India LPA, based on historical data from 1941 to 1990, comes to around 890 mm.

The IMD defines a rainfall range between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA as being “near normal”, while 90 to 96 per cent is considered “below normal”, 104 to 110 per cent “above normal”, above 110 per cent “excess” and below 90 per cent “deficient”.

By that yardstick, the IMD’s latest forecast — subject to a model error of plus or minus four per cent — is of a “below normal” monsoon. In its first stage forecast on April 17, the IMD had pegged the aggregate rainfall for the season at 96 per cent of the LPA, translating into a “near normal” monsoon.

This year’s monsoon has so far been bad, with the country as a whole receiving hardly 46 per cent of its normal quota of rainfall as on Tuesday. The drought-prone Central India region particularly has registered a deficiency of almost 75 per cent.

Farmers usually start sowing the kharif crop from June, which accounts for 163 mm or less than a fifth of the LPA of 890 mm for the entire monsoon season. With hardly any rains in the current month, planting operations are bound to suffer some delay.

All hopes, then, rest on the monsoon recovering in July, August and September, which normally receive rainfall of 293 mm, 262 mm and 175 mm respectively. Here, the IMD’s prognosis offers a mixed picture. July, it says, will see a country-wide average rainfall of 93 per cent of the LPA, which means a continuation of “below normal” conditions. August, though, is expected to improve to 101 per cent or “above normal”.

In short, the first half of the monsoon season (which is when most of the sowing happens) will be wanting. But if farmers can manage to plant using whatever little soil moisture in their fields, a monsoon revival from late-July may still be good enough at the crucial vegetative growth stage of the crop.

The outlook is even better when one looks at the IMD’s region-wise forecasts. Central India, which has been the main source of concern so far, is expected to record an aggregate rainfall amounting to 99 per cent of the region’s LPA of 994 mm for the whole season. This suggests a rainfall recovery in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra, which contribute to a chunk of the country’s kharif oilseeds, pulses, coarse grains and cotton produce.

On the other hand, North-West India is forecast to receive only 81 per cent of its LPA of 612 mm. Although farmers in Punjab and Haryana enjoy the benefits of irrigation cover, deficient rains may impact the prospects of the sugarcane crop in Uttar Pradesh, especially the central and eastern districts. That could, in turn, compound the shortage situation in sugar.

The IMD has projected the monsoon rainfall at 93 per cent of the LPA (725 mm) in the South Peninsula and 92 per cent (of 1,429 mm) for North-East India.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Cultivation | Climate & Weather

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