The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ may lack sting, but monsoon largely in tact

Thiruvananthapuram, July 3 The overall picture of an entrenched monsoon continues to be in tact, though concerns are now being raised over the strength of the ‘low’ supposedly shaping up in the Bay of Bengal.

The immediate fallout to this would be extended delay in forceful rains reaching northwest India. But the west coast, central and east India would continue to benefit from rainfall bounty.

On Friday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared that the monsoon covered the entire country, at least 12 days ahead of the normal. It has made up for its tantrums midway that worried policymakers no end.

STRONG FLOWS

The flows continue to be strong over both the peninsular seas, and would stay as such for some more time. Still they are not enough to rustle up the much-needed ‘spin’ required in the lower levels to constitute a strong ‘low’.

A feeble system is there for the asking from July 7-8, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) does see a wave of rains being spearheaded from the Bay.

It is shown as travelling westward into central India and beyond, generating rains over the entire region until July 12.

Significantly, the ECMWF now projects the possibility of another ‘low’ over the Bay around July 12-13, which is expected to ‘behave’ and bring in the much-delayed monsoonal rains to the northwest.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta, lead operational forecaster and Adviser to Ministry of Science and Technology, sees the likely possibility also of a mid-tropospheric cyclonic (MTC) circulation getting activated over Gujarat around July 10.

An MTC is an assured generator of sustained rainfall but parked higher into the atmosphere (relative to where ‘low’s are known to tread) and often noted for endurance capacity.

PRODUCTIVE SESSION

The Gujarat region is the favourite haunt for MTCs to set up a perch, and this is usually timed to coincide with peak monsoon activity.

Any approaching system from the Bay (in this case, a feeble ‘low’) can set up an extremely productive interaction with the MTC and trigger copious rainfall for the Konkan coast and the entire central India.

Northwest India should also be able to get some spill-over rains accompanied by thunder activity during this phase. Given its ‘irrigated’ status, delayed rains may not be critical from the agricultural point of view.

Intervening rains resulting from the moisture-laden westerlies and hesitant easterlies caressing the Himalayan foothills may have just helped ease the situation, and crucially enough, brought down mercury levels.

MONSOON GRADUATES

Meanwhile, the monsoon seems to have overcome teething problems and eased its way into the ‘teens’ and ‘20s’ across typical ‘playground’ settings on the west coast and in the North-East.

Overnight realisations have touched 30 cm on more than one occasion over the past few days, with Goa and Cherrapunjee getting pummelled.

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