The Hindu Business Line : India-China confluence: Ushering in a new golden era

Anyone who has been closely following the writings of academics and in the media of both India and China is bound to be left with a depressing, and often desperate, impression. Among the write-ups randomly picked up in the media on relations with China, there was not one that even attempted to point to an approach aimed at bringing the two neighbours closer together.

Writings on the Chinese side have warned India against its ‘unwise military moves’ in Arunachal Pradesh, dubbing it a ‘paper tiger, a term of abuse brought back into use after five decades.

Regressive rhetoric

There are enough political and economic analysts round the globe, and in India and China in particular, stoking suspicion and fear about the motives and intentions of either country. Negative thinking, bordering on defeatism, is rife.

For instance, much is made of China’s “string of pearls” strategy as a ruse to ‘concircle’ India and counter US influence. On the other hand, the morphing of the two “estranged democracies” of India and the US into two embracing democracies is being construed as stemming out of their determination to contain China.

In other words, the trend of writings in both India and China is that of two countries drifting apart, and becoming victims of their own regressive rhetoric. Not writings alone.

The mind of the intelligentsia on the Indian side of the divide, is still conditioned by the bitter memory of the Chinese invasion of 1962, made all the more humiliating by the unilateral ceasefire and voluntary withdrawal from the territories which had been overrun by the Chinese. Some Chinese authors view it as an unmerited magnanimity on China’s part, which has resulted in thoughtlessly throwing away a strategic acquisition.

All in all, there are cynics at work in both countries. Unless they look out, they will find themselves being pushed into a lose-lose situation, at the cost of the one overarching mission making for a symbiotic relationship and acting as a unifying force: Going all out to build a new international order that can for ever change the course of history and shift the centre of gravity of the comity of nations to the region where it belongs — Asia.

To borrow the words of George Canning, British statesman of the 19th century, used in another context, the mission is nothing short of calling a new world into existence to redress the balance of the old.

Powerful magnet

The vista stretching before India and China, if only they join hands and march in step, is unparalleled in its grandeur. And why will it not be? There can be no match to the combined synergy of two oldest civilisations, accounting for more than one-third of the human race, with cultural links going back to the time China came under the spell of Buddhism, acknowledged on all hands to be the emerging super-powers of the future.

The very sight of their standing forth on the world stage with unity of purpose and single-minded pursuit of common goals will usher in a new golden era of peace, progress and prosperity for the entire world.

Let us come to specifics and look at a concrete, plausible scenario from India’s perspective by way of illustration. Let us assume that India decides to unfasten itself from the US and makes happy and harmonious relations with China the pivot of its foreign policy. Imagine what a powerful magnet it will be for all the currently dormant constructive forces in the world at large.

It will receive nothing but joyous welcome from Russia, an influential power straddling both Europe and Asia, which has consistently been a true and genuine friend of India in fair weather and foul, and even taken an understanding view of its strategic partnership with the US.

The ASEAN countries will be impelled to recognise the radically altered geo-political and economic landscape and harmonise their policies with those of the two continental giants. Japan too will not take long to realise that its interests lay in forming a cooperative nexus with India and China, rather than throwing in its lot with the US.

The greatest impact will be on Pakistan. Face to face with an impregnable phalanx of India, China, Russia and Japan, and denied China’s support and encouragement, it too cannot but put a clamp on disruptive and destructive activities violative of accepted canons of relations among nations.

The combined weight of authority of the foursome will by itself create an environment of stability and security, paving the way for a broadening and deepening of ties between India and Pakistan.

All-powerful genie

The multiplier effect of this forward policy proactively pursued by India and China will be equally dramatic. For instance, even the present apparently euphoric pronouncements on the potential growth of trade between the two countries, projected to touch $90 billion by 2020, comes nowhere near the quantum that would be possible to achieve with the removal of political irritants and inhibitions which are acting as a drag.

This also applies to investment: It can only be said to be minuscule compared to the heights to which it can soar in terms of volume and variety of sectoral flows provided both countries turn their energies in full measure towards exploiting the complementarities in their economy such as India’s strength in services and software and China’s in manufacture and hardware.

Thus, a benevolent, all-powerful genie is waiting to be released from the bottle, but is being held back for one reason alone: The unresolved border issue between both countries. It is no use pretending that groups of officials, going by whatever high-sounding appellations, will ever be able to untangle the tangled skein of the India-China border which had been ill-defined, un-demarcated and disputed from as early as the 19th century.

No amount of time spent on study of maps, delving into treaties, dissecting of minutes of discussions, or poring over proceedings of conferences will be of help in establishing or demolishing with finality whatever claims are made.

Political nettle

Beyond a scintilla of doubt, there can be no definitive solution without give-and-take of territories on either side. The formula that has the best chance of success is accepting the status quo in the western and northern sectors, and ceding Tawang to China, with the McMahon Line being taken as the basis for delineating the boundary on the east without prejudice to its legitimacy or otherwise.

This also broadly corresponds to the ‘Heixiazi’ formula (used to settle the Sino-Russian border) advocated by Professor Zhou Shixin of the Shanghai International Studies University.

No negotiations at the official level, even if carried on till eternity, will ever dare to grasp what essentially is a political nettle. The agreement has to be between principals at the topmost levels in both governments.

The President/Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of China and the Prime Minister of India can solve the problem in a single sitting by keeping the big picture before them, by sweeping away the clutter of the past, and by mustering a statesmanlike spirit and a long range vision.

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