The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ downgraded, may delay rains for northwest

Thiruvananthapuram, July 9 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined other leading weather models to keep a watch for a crucial low-pressure in the Bay of Bengal.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had indicated the possibility as early as last week.

DAMPENER

An IMD update on Thursday said that the ‘low’ is likely to form over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay around Sunday.

While the location of the building ‘low’ is considered just right in terms of perceived ability to reach rains into the parched north and northwest, updated ECMWF forecasts on Thursday have put a dampener on this possibility.

The original forecasts had projected that the ‘low’ would intensify into a monsoon depression and carry enough punch to drive rains into north and northwest India.

But the system has now been downgraded into a ‘low’ capable of generating rains mainly for east and central India. This presupposes a westward movement of the system across east and central India.

Ideally, it should move in a typical west-northwest direction to bring Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan within its fold. This track is being ruled out at least for now.

Northwest India is already running a deficit of an average of above 50 per cent, and would be let down badly with the latest development, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, lead operational forecaster and Adviser to the Ministry of Science and Technology.

NEXT ‘LOW’

The ECMWF has forecast another ‘low’ in the Bay around July 19, but it remains to be seen if it would end up as ‘too little, too late’ for north and northwest India.

The IMD said in its forecast for the next few days that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over the region except west Rajasthan and Punjab where it will be in isolated places. This would result from rain bands proceeding from the westward-bound land-based ‘low’ that merged with the seasonal trough running down from Phulodi, Ajmer, Shivpuri, Sidhi, Daltonganj, Midnapur and Sagar Islands into east-central Bay.

Due to the presence of cloudy weather and likely scattered thundershowers over northwest India, the maximum temperatures may fall by 3-4 degree Celsius over the next two days.

The ongoing widespread rainfall activity is likely to persist over many parts of east and central India for another 24 hours before decreasing in intensity except over Orissa.

WET OVER WEST

But the west coast, Gujarat and interior Maharashtra is likely to experience widespread rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places during the next two to three days, the IMD outlook said.

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