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Thiruvananthapuram, July 13

North-west Bay of Bengal has thrown up what may be considered a `game-changer' low-pressure area, a day ahead of projections made by India Meteorological Department (IMD).

By evening it had become intensified to become `well-marked', and was expected to intensify further to become a monsoon depression, first since Cyclone Aila churned the Bay to upset the monsoon pattern.

MONSOON BOOSTER

But this time, the likely depression is bound to enter mainland India and give a much-needed boost for the monsoon, which has been struggling to find its moorings in the Bay leaving north-west India high and dry.

Significantly, the Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has projected a west north-west movement for the system, which augurs well for the north-west.

The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Orissa, south-Chhattisgarh and north-Andhra Pradesh during next three days.

Fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to heavy falls is also likely over Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during the same period. Thereafter, the rainfall activity is likely to extend into Gujarat.

HEAVY RAINS

Isolated extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 25 cm is also likely over Orissa during the next two days.

Fairly widespread rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka during next 24 hours and increase thereafter.

Current meteorological analysis indicates fairly widespread rainfall activity over north-west India as well, the IMD said.

East-India and adjoining east-central India are seen benefiting from fairly widespread rains initially, but the wet cover may spread over interior Maharashtra and Gujarat.

According to the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services, `rain spurs' could extend into north-Madhya Pradesh and adjoining west-Uttar Pradesh in later stages.

This would hinge on the prospects of interaction between monsoon easterlies from the Bay and itinerant western disturbances with moisture-laden south-westerly feed.

CPC projections do indicate this possibility and concomitant gains for west-Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which had mounted a watch for the `low' from last week itself, sees a core of the system crossing the Gujarat border into the Arabian Sea.

SUCCESSOR `LOW'

This would more or less be accompanied by the initiation of a successor `low' in the Bay around July 20, the ECMWF update said on Monday.

All-India seasonal rainfall has improved relative to the position last week, the NCMRWF said. But, the overall rainfall was still 33 per cent below normal (against 46 per cent as of June-end).

Four Met sub-divisions of north-west India - Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and west-Uttar Pradesh - are under the `scanty rain' category with less than 60 per cent of normal rain as on date.

Predictions suggest that rainfall activity may scale up over parts of north-west India, including these sub-divisions over the next few days. The NCMRWF did not rule out possibility of one or two heavy spells at some places.

Rain or thundershowers have been forecast at many places over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west-Uttar Pradesh and east-Rajasthan.

MONSOON TROUGH

According to the IMD, the monsoon trough lay extended from Ferozepur, Hissar, Kanpur, Varanasi, Jamshedpur and the centre of the `low' before dipping into the east-central Bay.

The western end of the trough is likely to shift southward to its normal position during the next two three days, ensuring intensification of and wider coverage by rains over central and north-west India.

Under the influence of the `low', east and east-central India have already started receiving heavy to very heavy rainfall, IMD update said.

The widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls will continue to lash a few places in Orissa, south-Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and north-Andhra Pradesh during the next three days.

Thereafter, rainfall activity is likely to increase over interior Maharashtra and Gujarat.

WET IN WEST

Fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala during next 24 hours and increase thereafter.

An IMD warning valid for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Orissa, south Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast for Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The three days that follow would see widespread rainfall continuing over west coast, south-Madhya Pradesh, south-Chhattisgarh, north-Andhra Pradesh and the north-eastern States.

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