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Climate & Weather Agri-Biz & Commodities - Climate & Weather Web Extras - Outlook Entire N. India may be brought under rain cover this week 
Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 4 The well-marked low-pressure area that triggered some of the worst flooding in peninsular India’s recorded history let off some steam weakening as a conventional ‘low’ on Sunday. The system ‘spin’ was tempered for the time being by the overwhelming influence of a deep westerly trough trooping in from the northwest border. MOISTURE INFLOWBut the prodigious inflow of moisture emptied by the monsoon easterlies and residual moisture swept ashore from the Arabian Sea by the westerly trough will keep the ‘low’ in the reckoning for another week. But its area of activity would shift to north-northeast in line with the movement of the westerly trough. In this manner, the rain belt will migrate to central India and east India, including the north-east. On Sunday, India Met Department located the westerly trough as dipping down to around south Rajasthan and adjoining north Gujarat and west Madhya Pradesh. The westerly trough and the ‘low’ have started interacting and this is expected take the core of the rain belt rains now along a north-east direction across central India into east and northeast India. Expected to be brought under rain cover over the next week (until October 11) are Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the North-Eastern States. The Himalayan foothills, especially sub-Himalayan West Bengal region, are expected to come under heavy to very heavy rainfall as the combined westerly trough and the monsoon ‘low’ moves in. The US National Centres for Environmental Predictions expects most of the rains to fall over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa and the North-Eastern States until October 11. Gujarat is largely kept out of the heavy rain belt. The week from October 12 to 20 would see another round of scattered rains over the extreme south peninsula even as the rest of the country is shown to mainly witness dry weather. WETTER THAN AVERAGEThe International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction at Columbia University suggests that the six days from Sunday would see the core of the rains being active over east and northeast India. Adjoining central India also would see some cascading impact. The IRI also indicated that the entire north India from west to east would witness ‘wetter than average’ conditions. Gujarat and adjoining west central India may witness relatively drier conditions.
Unusually heavy rains are forecast for the eastern third of the country (including the northeast) with the IRI warning of particularly heavy rains for the Himalayan foothills adjoining Bihar and sub-Himalayan West Bengal. In terms of expected quantity of accumulated precipitation, many parts of Rajasthan would see 100 to 120 per cent (of the monthly average during 1979-2004); central India and northwest India 40 to 60 per cent; and east Bihar and sub-Himalayan West Bengal, up to 160 per cent. Meanwhile, the IMD also has said that the westerly trough and the monsoon easterlies would interact to bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, East Rajasthan, and Haryana until Tuesday. Fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast over Maharashtra, Telangana, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Madhya Pradesh over the next two to three days. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS Satellite imagery on Sunday showed convective clouds over parts of north Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh, the North-Eastern States, north Andaman Sea, east-central Arabian Sea and central Bay of Bengal. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over north Konkan, Gujarat and Vidarbha during the next 24 hours. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days. Outlook until October 9 said that fairly widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy falls, is likely over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-Eastern States. The monsoon has been active over Telangana, Kerala, coastal and north interior Karnataka, west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, central Maharashtra and Marathawada during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning. The Chennai Met Centre said in an update that rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala and coastal Karnataka; at many places over Telangana and interior Karnataka; and at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh. Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over Kerala, Telangana, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and at a few places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh. Isolated rain or thundershowers is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep. Heavy rainfall warning has been issued for Telangana, coastal and north interior Karnataka and the ghat areas of south interior Karnataka during the next two days. More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather | Outlook
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