The Hindu Business Line : Bay forecast to undergo fresh churn this week

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 5 The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has cited model predictions suggesting formation of a fresh cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal around Thursday.

But no weather model sees intensification of the system to any significant level at least according to Monday’s outlook, presumably given the presence of opposing flows from the westerly trough currently active over the mainland.

The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services had earlier put the Bay under cyclone watch during October 6-12. Pre- and post-monsoon phases have been known for cyclone formation in the Bay.

After landfall over the Philippines, a remnant of erstwhile typhoon Parma in the west Pacific is shown as travelling west into the South China Sea and intensifying.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees Parma regaining near-typhoon strength in the South China Sea and aiming to hit Vietnam, almost mimicking Typhoon Ketsana early last week.

The landfall over Vietnam is scheduled around October 13. The Bay of Bengal is shown as buzzing in anticipation all through, with a likely low-pressure forming in the southeast waters by October 15.

Almost simultaneously, another tropical storm is forecast to develop just to the southeast of the Philippine archipelago, setting up the next in the series of west Pacific weather systems during the unusually strong typhoon season.

The US Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System and the Global Forecasting System models too indicate the possibility of a circulatory pattern developing in the southeast Bay during October 11 to 13.

Given this scenario, the northeast monsoon (winter monsoon or the monsoon in reverse) is not seen setting over the southeast coast anytime before October 15, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta, lead operational forecaster with the Department of Science and Technology.

LIKELY WINDOW

According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction, a ‘window’ may open for the northeast monsoon to make the onset over southeast coast during the week ending October 21.

Meanwhile, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Monday said that the previous day’s rain-generator ‘low’ over Vidarbha had weakened further into a cyclonic circulation over north Maharashtra and adjoining west Madhya Pradesh.

The circulation will cause the prevailing trough in westerlies to interact with the monsoon easterlies to cause fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

Subsequently, the rain activity is likely to increase over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast over Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 24 hours.

Satellite imagery on Monday showed convective clouds over parts of central Bay of Bengal, north Andaman Sea, the Konkan, Goa, west Madhya Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Short-term forecast for the three days ending October 10 (Saturday) spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that rainfall occurred at many places over coastal and south interior Karnataka and at a few places over Kerala and north interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.

Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Karnataka, north Kerala, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and at a few places over south Kerala, Lakshadweep, interior Karnataka and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Isolated rain or thundershowers is likely to occur over Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Isolated heavy rain may occur over coastal Karnataka during this period.

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