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Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 6

The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has delayed its outlook for formation of a cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal by a day to October 9 (Friday).

International models indicate formation of a system in the Bay slightly later towards the weekend, but there was no consensus on the exact location of the genesis.

NO CONSENSUS

For instance, the Global Forecasting System model cited by the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography (FNMOC) saw a system washing ashore over the Kolkata coast around October 13.

The NGP model employed by the FNMOC indicated the possibility of a stronger system taking shape over the southwest Bay around October 12, up to which forecasts were available, and looking at Sri Lanka and the southeast Tamil Nadu coast for a probable landfall.

Meanwhile on Tuesday, the upper air cyclonic circulation over north Madhya Pradesh and adjoining west Uttar Pradesh persisting from overnight, looked to wallop east and northeast India with rains over the next few days.

Given this, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the ongoing rainfall activity over northwest India to decrease considerably from Wednesday onwards.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls has been forecast over west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

The rain activity is later forecast to increase with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States during the next two days.

Satellite pictures on Tuesday showed convective clouds over parts of north and adjoining central and southeast Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, east Madhya Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh.

HEAVY OVER EAST

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) assessed that up to 600 per cent of the weekly normal rainfall may be recorded east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and parts of North-east India during October 6 to 13.

Rainfall ranging from 100 to 300 per cent above the normal is expected to fall over Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal and north and east Madhya Pradesh during this period.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has maintained its outlook for Tropical Storm Parma, currently impacting the Philippines, sliding into the South China Sea and regaining near-typhoon strength.

A reinvigorated Parma is expected to make a landfall over Vietnam around October 13, according to the ECMWF. The Bay of Bengal next door to the west is likely to be impacted by the system.

Parma, and cousin Super Typhoon Melor, heading into the opposite direction over west Pacific, had lost much of their bite after being impacted by the eastward extension of the same westerly trough active over mainland India.

But Parma would scarcely bring the curtain down on an unusually busy typhoon season. Fresh systems, though likely weaker, are shown as springing up over the west Pacific, the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, in that order, around October 16.

Meteorologists would be training their focus on any signs for the onset of the northeast monsoon (winter monsoon or reverse monsoon) that falls normally during October 15 to 20.

CALM OVER SOUTH

Meanwhile, things seem to have largely quietened out over the peninsula after being subjected to heavy downpours and flooding on a scale not witnessed in decades.

In its update on Tuesday, the Chennai Met Centre said that rainfall occurred at many places over coastal Karnataka and at a few places over Lakshadweep during the 24 hours ending in the morning.

Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and north coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Isolated rain or thundershowers is likely over in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema.

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