The Hindu Business Line : PM’s advisory panel ‘surprised’ by Ministry’s kharif estimates

New Delhi, Nov. 4 The Agriculture Ministry’s projection of a 21.07 million tonne (mt) dip in this year’s kharif foodgrain output (from 117.70 mt to 96.63 mt) has taken the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister by surprise.

“We did expect some decline, but not so much,” a member of the Council told Business Line.

The Council, in its Economic Outlook for 2009-10 presented on October 22, had said that the loss in kharif foodgrain production would be largely on account of rice. “We expect the output of coarse cereals to remain unchanged”, while there would be “a higher production of pulses”, the report stated.

But Krishi Bhavan’s ‘first advance estimates’, released on Tuesday, point at a sharp decline in production of both kharif coarse cereals and pulses over last year’s levels.

Coarse grains output is estimated to drop from 28.34 mt to 22.76 mt, led by bajra (8.83 mt to 5.83 mt), maize (13.90 mt to 12.61 mt) and jowar (3.10 mt to 2.55 mt). Pulses production, too, is slated to fall by from 4.78 mt to 4.42 mt.

“Our assessment of no setback to coarse cereals and pulses production was based mainly on available acreage data and related parameters”, the member explained.

Increased acreage

In fact, the Agriculture Ministry’s latest acreage numbers show that farmers planted 207.38 lakh hectares (lh) under kharif coarse cereals this time, which is more than the corresponding coverage of 206.68 lh last year.

There has been an increase in area under maize (71.13 lh versus 70.53 lh), bajra (85.44 lh versus 85.27 lh) and jowar (31.27 lh versus 29.34 lh). Likewise, kharif pulses acreage has gone up from 96 lh to 101.42 lh, which is a significant jump.

“If production has come down despite increased acreage, it means yields have plummeted beyond expectations”, the member pointed out.

Meanwhile, the Agriculture Minister, Mr Sharad Pawar, on Wednesday, said that he expects rabi foodgrains output to be 8.5 mt higher than last year’s 116.18 mt. Rabi oilseeds production, too, is pegged 1.5 mt higher than last year’s 10.28 mt.

The rabi and kharif estimates of the Ministry would give a total foodgrain output of around 221 mt and oilseeds production of 27 mt — below the Council’s projections of 223 mt and 27.6 mt, respectively.

Related Stories:
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Farm Ministry delays kharif output estimates

More Stories on : Foodgrains | Outlook | Agriculture

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