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Vinson Kurian

New Delhi, Nov 6 The North-East monsoon has been vigorous over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and active over Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.

An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Tamil Nadu and at many places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu and at a few places over Rayalaseema.

Isolated rainfall occurred over south interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep and north coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at many places over interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala and south coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places over Rayalaseema, Lakshadweep and south interior Karnataka.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh.

A separate warning issued by the Chennai Met Centre said that heavy rain is likely with very heavy falls at isolated places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next two days.

Isolated heavy rain has been forecast is over interior Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala during the same period.

Precipitation outlook provided by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction continued to suggest that rains would continue over coastal Tamil Nadu and off the southwest coast during the week starting Friday.

Some of the rains off the southwest coast would spill over along the Kerala coast as well while the interior regions would likely be devoid of the heavier rains.

This is the time that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) hopes to see the ‘low’ over south-east Arabian Sea propel towards the north just off the Kerala coast.

India Met Department (IMD) has already put the ‘low’ under watch for intensification over the next few days. The ECMWF is of the view that the intensification would help stretch the footprint of the larger trough of lower pressure that encompasses the ‘low’ to cover the south-east Arabian Sea and south-west Bay of Bengal.

The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) estimated that the wind speeds were 20 to 25 knots around the system on Friday largely due to the ‘funnelling’ occasioned by the Palk Straits that separates mainland India from Sri Lanka. In this manner, the speeds wind down to 10 to 15 knots to the west.

This, coupled with the proximity to land, would prevent it from intensifying beyond a point – though the status of a well-marked ‘low’ to even a depression is being bandied about by various models.

The ECMWF is of the view that the northward propagating system would make a landfall over Mumbai-south Gujarat belt by November 13 even as the debris gets driven into west-central India by a western disturbance trooping in around that time.

The westerlies associated with the disturbance will also cause the moisture to get sprayed north-northeast along the coast of Tamil Nadu. The IMD has said that Andhra Pradesh would be able to get showers going into the next week.

The minimum temperatures over north-west India are expected to look up from Sunday in view of the arrival of the steaming head of the western disturbance that features rising motion of air and moisture carry.

Isolated to scattered rain or snow has been forecast over the western Himalayan region from Saturday. No significant change is likely in maximum temperatures.

But the mercury would dip after the passage of the western disturbance into the east, bringing its wake colder northwesterlies from the deserts of West Asia.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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