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M.R. Subramani

A graphic representation of El Nino weather pattern

CHENNAI, March 29

THE impetus for El Nino, the unusual weather pattern caused by a rise in ocean temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, towards the end of the year continues to strengthen, though meteorologists are not yet sure of its exact impact.

A compact picture may be available next week, according to scientists working with change in pattern of sub-sea surface temperatures. "The recent re-occurrence of strong westerly wind bursts in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is an indication of the shape of things," according to Australian meteorologists.

The Climate Prediction Centre in the US reported this month that the warm episode in the Pacific continued through February and the sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded one degree Celsius.

"The warming of surface and sub-surface waters along the South American coast was due to the arrival of the oceanic Kelvin wave that has been propagating eastward from the central equatorial Pacific since mid-December. These conditions are often observed in the early stages of El Nino," it said in a press release.

But the clinching evidence of a developing El Nino was enhanced rainfall over tropical west-central Pacific during the end of February.

"These features reflect the warming in the sea surface temperatures, and are possibly the first atmospheric effects of a developing El Nino," it said.

El Nino delayed monsoon in 1997-98 in India and caused severe floods in Bangladesh.

The UN-sponsored Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) is keeping a tab on the developments. Last week, the Weather Climate Program of the UN confirmed of the possibility of El Nino occurring towards the year-end.

Meanwhile the Queensland Department of Primary Industries (QDPI), Australia, in its latest bulletin, said: "more definitive information will not be available until later in autumn due to the variability that exists in equatorial patterns, especially sea surface temperature patterns over the next few months."

But it also confirmed that indications of a developing El Nino were strong.

The 1997-98 El Nino was stated to have had the strongest effect in the last 100 years. While affecting the monsoon activity in the sub-continent, it resulted in drought and bush fires in Australia besides affecting South China.

One of the countries that was hit badly then was Indonesia, where forest fires broke out. The fires choked the entire South-East Asia scanning from Malaysia to Singapore.

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