The Hindu Business Line : Drought likely to affect cane, oilseeds production in Karnataka

KARNATAKA'S sugarcane and oilseeds production is likely to be severely affected due to weak monsoon, according to the State Agriculture Department officials here. "We are closely monitoring the situation," they said.

Corroborating their statement, a study from the economic research wing of Credit Rating Information and Services Ltd (Crisil) said that the drought was likely to affect coarse cereals and oilseeds.

A similar report of HDFC Securities expressed concern over production of oilseeds in the State. Karnataka accounted for 7.45 per cent of the national production in the last financial year. Almost 56 per cent of Karnataka was witnessing scanty showers.

Other crops such as rice, maize, sugarcane, cotton and groundnuts that are harvested in October and November and account for half the annual production will also be impacted. The winter crops of wheat, barley and mustard, which are harvested in March and depend on irrigation, may also be affected as wells could go dry, the Crisil report said.

The study also pointed out that production of tur in Karnataka would be severely impacted.

The study has been conducted through a deficient rainfall impact parameter (DRIP) and provides an assessment of the impact of rainfall by taking into account both the `shock' (captured through deficiency in rainfall) and the vulnerability (captured through un-irrigated areas).

Interestingly, a State-level analysis under the same index shows 2002 has not been the worst of the last six years. The value of DRIP was higher for Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra in 1997 and Tamil Nadu in 2000.

Rajasthan with the highest value of DRIP emerges as the worst affected State by the current spell of scanty rains.

Unlike in the North, irrigation in the southern parts of the country depends relatively heavily on rainfall for replenishment.

Sources said the country received scanty rains in 15 years in the monsoon season that began June 1. Rainfall has been 24 per cent below average, with more than a quarter of districts receiving lighter-than-normal showers.

To make matters worse, the Indian Meteorological Department in May forecast a normal monsoon, prompting many farmers to sow too much rice and other water-dependent crops.

The drought may prune the income of rural Indians, who make up three-fifths of the country's 1 billion population, hurting sales of manufactured goods such as tractors, two-wheelers and even daily consumption items such as soap.

Efforts to cut the Budget deficit to 5.3 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in the current financial year from 5.9 percent last year could suffer fail as the Government would be forced to spend more on farmers, they added.

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Drought likely to affect cane, oilseeds production in Karnataka