The Hindu Business Line : The monsoon leash on agriculture

With the demand for farm produce estimated to rise significantly, there can be no complacency on the food security front. And with Indian agriculture continuing to be driven by the vagaries of the monsoon, there is no gainsaying the importance of water conservation and management, says R. C. Rajamani

Water management is important for ensuring that the farm sector's fortunes are not solely dependant on the monsoon.

COME May, and the air is filled with the fragrance of monsoon, bringing with it bountiful rains for four months — from end-May to end-September.

Breaking over the Arabian Sea in all its magnificence, the South-West monsoon spreads across the entire Indian peninsula within four weeks. This is in any normal monsoon year. The country has been very lucky to have 14 successive good monsoons since 1988. The last failed monsoon was in 1987, which naturally turned out to be a drought year.

A normal monsoon, based on certain time-tested parameters of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), was again predicted for 2002. However, after a splendid start, its strength seems to have dissipated.

While an embarrassed IMD continues to receive flak from the media for its "wrong forecast", the country's failed date with the rain gods underscores the fundamental reality that man is yet to find an answer to the inscrutable ways of Nature. The law of averages appears to have prevailed over pious hopes.

With half the season over, the rainfall, as of August 5, has been 30 per cent below the long-period average (LPA). Against the normal 470.8 mm, the country had received only 329.8 mm of rains in the two-month period from June 1.

According to the Crop Weather Watch Group, an inter-ministerial think-tank comprising experts and officials from the Science and Technology, Water Resources and Agriculture Ministries, the cumulative rainfall from June 1 to July 31 was normal to excess in 10 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions.

It was deficient (minus 20 per cent to minus 69 per cent of LPA) in 21 subdivisions and scanty (minus 60 per cent of LPA) in five subdivisions. The scanty subdivisions are eastern MP (minus 61 per cent), western UP (minus 76 per cent), Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh (minus 74 per cent) and western Rajasthan (minus 73 per cent).

The worst affected is Uttar Pradesh, where 62 of the 64 districts have had deficient or scanty rainfall. Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi have had low rainfall in all the 21 districts. In Punjab, 15 of the 16 districts have reported deficient/scanty rainfall. In Rajasthan, rainfall has been scanty in all the 32 districts. Similar is the case in all the 12 districts of Himachal Pradesh, 42 of the 45 districts in Madhya Pradesh, and 14 of the 15 districts in Chattisgarh.

The extremely subdued monsoon activity has affected the water availability in the country's 70 important reservoirs. The water level in these reservoirs is only about 18 per cent of the FRL (full reservoir level) — that is, 130.55 billion cubic metres (BCM).

The current water storage is 45 per cent of last year's level and 40 per cent of the past 10-year average.

A failed monsoon evokes images of drought, shortage and their consequent impact on business, markets and the economy as a whole. The economy is sensitive not only to the vagaries of the monsoon but also to any news on this front.

For instance, a report, not too long back, of a possible failure of the monsoon saw the Sensex shed 50 points — the year, however, ended with a good monsoon and higher foodgrain output.

It is ironic that while large parts of the country suffer from the lack of rains and drought conditions, some areas have excess rainfall and floods with much of the water flowing into the sea. This is an annual occurrence and the wastage of this precious resource is mind-boggling. The answer to the problem, no doubt, is water conservation. Unfortunately, mega schemes such as the Narmada and Tehri are immersed in controversies. The benefits of the schemes are sought to be sacrificed at the altar of big-time politics and environmental concerns.

There has been no dearth of innovative ideas, such as the linking of rivers — the Ganga and the Cauvery, for instance — for optimal utilisation of water all through the year. Regrettably, the files on such grandiose schemes have been gathering dust for decades.

That water is a precious resource and cannot be taken for granted has obviously not dawned on politicians the world over. It has been predicted that the next world war would most likely be over share of water. Considering the endless inter-State disputes over river waters, this is hardly surprising.

India witnessed its last major famine in 1946 — the great Bengal famine, that is. While touring the famine-hit areas, Mahatma Gandhi observed in Noakhali that "to the hungry God is bread" and "it is the duty of independent India to ensure that every individual is enabled to earn his or her daily bread."

"We shall annihilate the universe if even one single individual is denied food," thundered poet Bharati.

Jawaharlal Nehru, echoed Gandhiji when, in 1948, he said that "everything else can wait but not agriculture".

True to his word, he inspired the scientists and technocrats to lay the foundation for the `Green Revolution', which began to bear fruit in the late 1960s, eventually transforming India from a food importer to an exporter.

Leading agro-economists have, however, warned against complacency on the food security front. The overall rate of agricultural growth in the past two decades was 2.8 per cent, marginally higher than the 2.4 per cent growth in population.

The small gap only serves to re-emphasise the danger of any dips in farm output. The pace of agricultural growth has to be accelerated significantly to meet future requirements.

According to a study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), the demand for cereals by 2020 would be 293 million tonnes.

Unless cereal output rises substantially, the demand-supply gap would continue to widen, the study warns. India would, therefore, have to increase its foodgrains production by nearly 100 million tonnes in the next 20 years. A tall order, but by no means impossible.

If the President, Mr A. P. J. Abdul Kalam's "Vision 2020" — of transforming India into a developed nation — is realised, the people would have much higher purchasing power. The immediate consequence would be greater food demand. Is agriculture ready for the challenge?

The solution lies with the politicians and policymakers, who should be providing the right environment for scientists and technocrats to usher in a second Green Revolution.

The first step, though, will be to try and prove wrong Lord Curzon's remark, "Indian economy is a gamble on the monsoon."

Sadly, his statement, even a century later, seems to hold good.

(The author, a former Deputy Editor of PTI, is a New Delhi-based freelance journalist.)

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