The Hindu Business Line : Drought may hit pepper output

Contrary to reports from various quarters of an increase in the production the pepper crop in Vietnam and India is unlikely to be good, according to the Jakarta-based International Pepper Community (IPC).

The deficient and delayed southwest monsoon in the pepper growing areas in India is expected to shrink the production by 30 to 50 per cent, pepper market sources here said. The Indian production last year, according to them, could be around 70,000 tonnes and, this year, it may be at least 30 per cent less.

Meanwhile, pepper output in Vietnam in 2002 is seen around 55,000 tonnes with fluctuation 5-10 per cent (plus or minus), Mr K.P.G. Menon, Executive Director, IPC told Business Line. So far, Vietnam has exported 58,000 tonnes in 2002, which included stock brought forward, returned goods and a part was on paper export to obtain VAT refunds.

Quoting Vietnam Pepper Association, Mr Menon said: "The weather conditions and pests and diseases is not well for 2003 crop. Forecast for 2003 is now too early,'' he added.

The weather condition for Vietnam crop for 2003 was reportedly not good, he pointed out. Besides, he said, the Indian crop had also been badly affected by the delayed monsoon.

According to him, the pepper futures (IPSTA) prices were not an indication of a declining trend. During the first five months of the calendar year, normally India and Vietnam were the major suppliers. As both the countries are expecting adverse impact of weather conditions "why should we imagine the prices will decline'', he wondered.

Mr Kishor Shamji, President, India Pepper and Spice Trade Association(IPSTA) said the pepper economy was regulated by pepper futures. Those who failed to follow the future trends shown by the IPSTA exchange burnt their fingers, he said.

He said that June -August was the lean season in the US and Europe with much less activity. After the summer season the market in Europe and USA was expected to be active from Sep onwards. If the prices remained steady at the lean season then there was all probability that it might move up in the months to come, he said.

''October, November and December futures showed an upward trend. Sentiments are bullish,'' he said. Now the buyers are looking at Brazil which is expected to enter the market next month, he said. Mr Menon said the forecast for the 2003 crop would made at the IPC meeting to be held during next month at Kuching, Malaysia.

The domestic demand is also expected to pick up in the coming months starting from Ganesh Chathurthi, according to Mr Shamji. "Sentiments of the local dealers are also bullish,'' he said. According to him 15 loads (150 tonnes) of pepper had been transported from Wayanad to Bihar, Indore, Pune and Nagpur on August 26 and 27.

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